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Old 02-18-2005, 01:37 AM
ORIGINATOR ORIGINATOR is offline
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Default Personality Profiling Proves Profitable

Ok, Buzz You may have already read this and if you have, I WROTE IT. But, I thought I'd share this with the The Back Nine golf fans or any who bets at this site. Again It's only my opinion, and I don't want to come off like a know-it-all.

Personality Profiles Prove Profitable

When handicapping individual sports, such as golf, the capper must leave no stone unturned. Golf is such a finite game that only 1.2 strokes separate the 5th ranked player in the world from the 100th ranked player. There is a fine line that separates 1.2 strokes per 18 holes. Moreover, odds makers will purposely match up the top 30 players in the world, lowering the stroke differential to microscopic amounts. Less than half a shot separates this group of golf's 30 best. Hence, statistics alone are not the key to betting bliss.


One thing I've learned over the years is that a player's personality or character traits often times is the difference between winning and losing.


After examining all the statistics, course compatibility, current performance and everything in between, the professional sports gambler takes it one step further. Instead of handicapping the golfer, he handicaps the person.


Personal qualities such as perseverance, resolve and passion are human traits that translate into winning. For example, is player X a closer? How does player X perform at the top of the leader board? At the moment of truth, does X full court press or play prevent defense? If player X has a bad first round, how does he respond? Before you invest in an individual, I strongly advise profiling a man's personality. Once you can accurately profile a man's character, exploit it and earn from it. It's a very important variable hidden Inside the Lines.


Two years ago, David Toms made it to the Quarter Finals of the AMEX Match Play event, and was scheduled to play Kevin Sutherland. I was on the internet, handicapping the event. While reading, I discover that Toms was in the hospital all night long being treated for food poisoning. Once I verified the information was accurate, I did what every professional handicapper would do. I bet Sutherland with both hands! Guess what? Tom's beat him 3 and 2, and I ate macaroni and cheese for two months.


Unfortunately I had to learn the hard way, from my wallet, but a valuable lesson nonetheless. It was this exhibition of courage, resolve and guts that proved to me that a man's competitive spirit is as important as his stroke average.


How you going to win if you don't gamble,


RPM
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Old 02-18-2005, 05:15 AM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Posts: 1,438
Default RE:Personality Profiling Proves Profitable

My name is not Buzz, but a guy named Buzz used to work for me. But he's dead now. I can reply, right?

What you laid out in your post, I thought, was common knowledge to all. As for myself, this is the only way I handicap golf, and other sports. Just because Tiger plays 1 shot a round better than Fred Couples doesn't mean he wins every round by exactly 1 stroke. That would be absurd and make betting useless. So when do you bet Tiger and when do you back Fred? There are hundreds of variables to consider. I can only realistically keep track of about 20, and then on only a dozen players. That keeps me pretty busy.

I posted this a few months ago, and just barely touched the subject. Not much response so I just sort of let it go. These are the main factors I consider---

Streakiness---Playing well, playing bad, in cycles. Betting for, betting against.
Playing after a layoff---Plays better, plays worse. Most play worse.
Stamina---Plays better 1st round or 4th round. Vital to know these stats for daily m/u's
Payday---Who's playing every shot like it's 10 grand in his pocket. Who needs the money, who doesn't.
Got laid last night---This would be some good information
Morning or afternoon.
Lefthand, righthand course
short, long
The par 5's---This is really a big factor, believe it or not.
Wide ,Narrow
Type of grass, type of sand, type of greens
Past performances at specific track
Quitters, bulldogs, grinders.
And so on.

Not to mention shit luck. Your opponent aces the 17th, and your guy bounces his ball off the top of the pin for a 50 yard bounce into the eucalyptus trees. 5 shot swing, 1 hole to go.

I'm trying hard not to go crazy behind this thing, I want to keep it fun. If it turns into too much work, or causes any pain, I'll stop betting on golf. I don't need the money anyway.

GL to all, as usual.
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Old 02-20-2005, 02:20 PM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 17,111
Default RE:Personality Profiling Proves Profitable

One other factor that is important is to find guys who stick it out no matter what. Hal Sutton a couple of years ago- if he didn't have a chance to win on the final day he wouldn't care - he wasn't really interested in being second or third. I kind of see that in Vijay currently, that if he isn't in the hunt he will miss the cut, though if he is on the front page of the leaderboard he is a dynamite grinder.

I like looking at these young guys who can move up the leaderboard on the last day. Tim Clark seems to be one of those guys.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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