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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 01-10-2005, 09:55 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default Hawaiian Open

New week, new tournament. This is it, the real opening for '05 pro golf. Everyone shows up. The regular good guys and new rookies, everyone except who I was going to back, DL3.

I put my cash on Jerry Kelly, 23-1 SIA. Value here for sure, but the main reason is his 5th place last year. Jerry can go low all 4 rounds. All he has to do is beat Els and Singh.

These par 70 courses are great for guys like Jerry. Good on, or around the greens, and where the big hitters won't get so many automatic birdies. He's rested, he's tan, he's ready. lol

Leaving for duck hunting in about 10 minutes, but this time, I'll be back Wed. night. Post my plays then.

GL, to all us golf nuts. All 3 of us.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2005, 02:36 AM
vegemite sandwich vegemite sandwich is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open


I've decided to kick the golfing season off with a few dollars on a rejuvenated Corey Pavin to finish in the top 4 at $38.50 on sportstab. He spent December in Australia playing 3 tournaments making the cut on all 3 occasions and contending in the final 2. He was uncharacteristically let down by his putter on both occasions in the final rounds at the Aust PGA and Aust Masters, particularly the Aust Masters where he missed several makeable birdie puts from inside 20 feet. If he has an on week with the putter he should be right in contention as tee to green he is almost back to his best. Has a fairly good record here (made cut last 5 years and top 20 the last 2). Players who played through December either on the Australian Tour or elsewhere throughout the world always seem to do very well in the early season US events. Good luck to all.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2005, 02:51 AM
Picksix Picksix is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

What do you guys think about Michelle making the cut?

She is close to +400. She missed by 1 shot last year and that was after a 2 over first day. She finished with a -2 68 on Friday and had birds on 2 of the last 3 holes. This Tourney is filled with a bunch of stiffs to round out the field and is probably one of the easier cuts to make. She knows the course and anything near +400 seems fair to me.

TJ...FYI, Kelly is 30-1 at Oly.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2005, 11:18 AM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

Price on Wie is dropping. I love her game but would not take that bet. I know she was great last year.

Playing the following outrights

Maryuma
Kaye
Riley

Like Kaye most of all. Guy is streaky and tends to stay good for a while once he has it going
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2005, 01:47 PM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

Wie will NOT make the cut.

She had a once in a lifetime round in round 2 last year.

IMO she went backwards throughout last year and although she has the potential and swing to dominate women's golf, she has a lot to prove.

The game may look like a Rolls-Royce but it ain't the real deal for now at least.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2005, 03:06 PM
Picksix Picksix is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

Thanks for the input guys.

I could buy the "NO" at a lower price then I got the "Yes", but I'm not sure if I will.

Valueman, I would usually bet against in these spots. I bet a ton against Annika to make the cut at the Memorial a couple years ago and I think she is a much better player then Wie. I also agree with you that she hasn't really improved much in the last year, but...

She does have a few things in her favor. She probably knows the course as well as anyone, She really believes she can make the cut(last year her dad said "I really hope you will make the cut" and she said "I hope I will finish top 20") and I think the biggest factor is this field. There are quite a few guys I haven't even heard of.

Field
Steve Allan Michael Allen Robert Allenby
Jason Allred Tommy Armour III Woody Austin
Paul Azinger Aaron Baddeley Briny Baird
Brian Bateman Cameron Beckman Rich Beem
Jason Bohn Justin Bolli Danny Briggs
D.J. Brigman Bart Bryant Jonathan Byrd
Tom Byrum Chad Campbell Kevin Carll
Paul Casey Daniel Chopra Stewart Cink
Paul Claxton John Cook Ben Crane
Matt Davidson Brian Davis Luke Donald
James Driscoll Joe Durant John Elliott
Ernie Els Bob Estes Brad Faxon
Todd Fischer Steve Flesch Carlos Franco
Harrison Frazar Fred Funk Jim Furyk
Robert Gamez Brian Gay Brent Geiberger
Matt Gogel Retief Goosen Paul Gow
Todd Hamilton Dudley Hart Mark Hensby
Tim Herron Charles Howell III Bradley Hughes
John Huston Ryuji Imada David Ishii
Toshi Izawa Peter Jacobsen Zach Johnson
Brendan Jones Steve Jones Takashi Kamiyama
Hideki Kase Jonathan Kaye Jerry Kelly
Skip Kendall Tom Kite Hank Kuehne
Bernhard Langer Franklin Langham Tom Lehman
Thomas Levet Frank Lickliter II Peter Lonard
John Lynch Andrew Magee Jeff Maggert
Shigeki Maruyama Dick Mast Jonathan Mathias
Len Mattiace Billy Mayfair Spike McRoy
Greg Meyer Shaun Micheel Larry Mize
John Morse Sean Murphy Kevin Na
Sean O'Hair Arron Oberholser Joe Ogilvie
Geoff Ogilvy Greg Owen Ryan Palmer
Rod Pampling Jesper Parnevik Craig Parry
Corey Pavin Pat Perez Craig Perks
Tom Pernice, Jr. Tim Petrovic D.A. Points
Ian Poulter Ted Purdy Brett Quigley
Rob Rashell Tag Ridings John Riegger
Chris Riley Loren Roberts John Rollins
Justin Rose Rory Sabbatini Adam Scott
John Senden Patrick Sheehan Scott Simpson
Vijay Singh Heath Slocum Jeff Sluman
Chris Smith Craig Stadler Kevin Stadler
Andre Stolz Hidemichi Tanaka Hideto Tanihara
Vaughn Taylor Chris Tidland David Toms
D.J. Trahan Kirk Triplett Omar Uresti
Bo Van Pelt Duffy Waldorf Jimmy Walker
Euan Walters Charles Warren Nick Watney
Brett Wetterich Michelle Wie

No doubt there are some quality guys in the field, but after about the top 40-50 the level really seems to drop off.

If I can find -350 I will probably buy back, if not I'll just let it ride.



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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2005, 03:39 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

I dont think her game has gotten worse. I think it has gotten better. Much so.

She is the real deal and will be playing on the mens tour in 7 years or so.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2005, 04:05 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

The more I think about it the more I think its a play Pick Six. I may pick up some of that. She has got the game and local knowledge
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2005, 10:08 PM
SEA URCHIN SEA URCHIN is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

wrote this yesterday and have been out all day
played theses and would like within 10 cents
gl

kelly over maruyama-30 1.5 units pinnacle

pampling over funk -15 1 unit pinnacle

kelly over allenby -15 1 unit pinnacle


year -2.575 units
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 12:01 AM
vegemite sandwich vegemite sandwich is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open


Also have had a small investment on Bradley Hughes to be the top Australian finisher at $26 on Sportstab. He led the Aussie Masters nearly all the way till a double bogey at the last. Has rediscovered his "A" swing after a couple of years in the wilderness. Performed ok on the nationwide tour last year to regain PGA tour card. A win on the US tour this year would not come as a suprise as when he has an on week he is almost untouchable. Will follow him at selected events throughout the year at huge odds.
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 01:58 AM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open


Very quickly, my picks for the tournament--

Kelly ov. Allenby 1.855
Howell ov. Parnavik 1.909
Pampling ov. Funk 1.870
Faxon ov. Roberts 1.870

2 units each---200 bucks per

Wie will make the cut, this time or soon.

More tomorrow---Gl to all.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 03:45 AM
Bitter Bruin Bitter Bruin is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

YTD +227 (assume a unit equals 100 - so, if laying a -125, the play would be 125 to win 100, if playing a +120, I would be playing 100 to win 120 - this makes the bookkeeping easy)

To win - this is one unit in total split as follows:

50% on R. Goosen +1106 (Pinny)
30% on S. Cink +2500 (5D)
20% on J. Kaye +5500 (5D)

Matchups for 4 days:

C.Campbell -120 over C. Howell (5D)
R. Allenby +107 over J. Furyk (Pinny)
R. Pampling -125 over F. Funk (Pinny)


GLTA
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 04:06 AM
Picksix Picksix is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

BB,

FYI, Goosen +1400 at WSEX and Kaye +7500 at WSEX.
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 04:30 AM
Bitter Bruin Bitter Bruin is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

P6, thanks....I really need to reup my account there...have 5 other books, just have never got around to putting money back in there.
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 01:21 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

This forum is starting to really click, and I'm learning a lot of good stuff, makes me feel good.

Three of us have Pampling over Funk, this must be a for sure lock. FWIW, last season, Funk played poorly for 2/3 of the year, and then got streaky hot. He did bad last week too, save one round.

For the dailys, just for fun, for 1/5 of a unit, I played a 2 player parlay, in the 3-balls. I played this on feel, I didn't put much hdcp work into it.

Goosen over Hensby and Huston
Toms over Parry and Roberts---pays 4.200

Last year I played more than a few of these 2 teamers, and hit more than half. So, while fun, it can be profitable, and I'm not just donating my money.

Today's the day. I feel fully alive while the tournament is going. GL to all.

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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 03:07 PM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

Bitter Bruin - I've said this before and I am in no way associated with Betfair but for Golf outrights you have to bet with them.

Goosen +1300 which is +1235 even if you are on the max 5% commission - could get down to 2% if you are a frequent & big player
Cink +2900 = +2755 at highest commission
Kaye +6400 = +6080 at highest commission

This is comparing to someone who has shopped around.

Remember also you only pay commission on the total winnins per market so if you did all 3 then the winnings on one would be offset by the losses on the other 2 so the net commission paid would be less than the 5% max - most reasonable size bettors are around 4%.

Further they bet in play throughout and the winner markets have high liquidity all the time so you trade in running - place markets for golf are weak as are match ups.
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 05:22 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

Pampling is a no go
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 06:25 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

She is hanging in there through 5. Even par. Course is playing tough with many players over par
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2005, 06:32 PM
Picksix Picksix is offline
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Default RE:Hawaiian Open

Valueman,

I'm not sure if US residents can play through Betfair, but either way, I agree it is important to have a few different outs, especially for the outrights.

In case you missed it earlier...WSEX had +1400 on Goosen and +7500 on Kaye.

Aly,

I hope she can stay close and make it interesting tomorow. FWIW, she started on the back. Not sure which side is easier...I know she had birds on 16 and 18 last year in her last round, I also think she made bogey on 1 both days.
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