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Old 10-18-2004, 07:49 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default Random Golf Thoughts

I read somewhere, awhile ago, that golf is the single most lucrative sports bet. The reason being that the oddsmakers don't know that much about it, and that not many bettors bet on it. I don't know myself, but a couple of weeks ago I made 8 bets at Pinny. All 8 lines moved in my direction. I just can't believe I select the wagers so sharp, or that my little action effects the line. Just a curious thought.

There is a ton of handicapping and past performance material out there on the net. I don't have time to go beyond 1 years worth of statistics. I do have a day job.

I place all golfers into my designated catagories. And they are---

The big 4, the hall of famer stars. Tiger, Els, Vijay, Mick.
Golfers that will win in a given year. Garcia, Gossen, Furyk, etc.
Guys that are better than most people think. Van Pelt, Pampling, Gamez, Peterson, Howell, etc.
Guys that are streaky. Haas, Faxon, Waldorf, and others.
Quiters. Daly, Petro, Rose
Upandcomers. Chris Smith, Di Marco, Zach Johnson, Rory
And about 5 other catagories.

The interesting part of handicapping golfers, is locating the value in a match between, say a streaky good guy vs. a big 4 guy. Say Faxon on a hot streak vs. Mick. Is Faxon worth 2.30, 2.40, or 2.50. Sounds easy, at 2.30 take Mick, at 2.50 take Faxon, at 2.40 lay off. Just an example.

SIA often has the best odds out there for golf. It often has the worst odds too. I opened an acct. there just to bet golf. I think they're mad at me. They offer a 5 man group bet that is really fun, and profitable. I don't play anything that has ties lose. SIA's winner take all odds are almost always waaaay better than Pinny's. I think SIA steals their line from Bet365, but they almost never move the line. I don't look for scalps, but I have seen them around.

Pinny has the best head to head odds. Period.

Almost all pro golfers are married w/ 1 or 2 kids. Just something I noticed. And nearly all graduated from college.

I wonder if golfers are aware that people bet on them.




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Old 10-19-2004, 02:51 PM
Inside The Pylons Inside The Pylons is offline
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Default RE:Random Golf Thoughts

Quote:
Originally posted by: Tommyjay
I wonder if golfers are aware that people bet on them.
Yes. Some definitely are aware.

One of these days in the not too distant future, there is going to be an uproar just like the one that happened in Tennis.
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Old 10-20-2004, 05:54 PM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Default RE: Random Golf Thoughts

The golf lines at Pinnacle move automatically based on bet size, w/little (or no) regard for who bet them. So yeah, it's definitely possible to push eight of them in your direction w/out knowing anything about golf. (Not implying that's the case, though the Faxon v Mickelson thing did leave me scratching my head in bewilderment. "Streakiness" is also a real tricky concept to play around with, unless you've got a stat guru by your side.)

Pinnacle's juice is excellent, though their big jumps on limit bets actually make it a little cheaper to get down on golf at a couple of other outs, generally. (They are still essential of course - especially if they keep up the Eurotour stuff.)

"Pylons" is correct in re: the betting issue, though I don't think the PGA will be the Tour affected.
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Old 10-23-2004, 05:23 AM
Inside The Pylons Inside The Pylons is offline
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Default RE:Random Golf Thoughts

Quote:
Originally posted by: mr_heem
"Pylons" is correct in re: the betting issue, though I don't think the PGA will be the Tour affected.
Agreed!
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