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BMW Classic--Cup 3rd Round
I knew Phil wouldn't play this week. Wouldn't surprise me if he didn't play next week too. The problem with the FedUp Cup is that way too many players are eliminated before they tee it up. Doesn't matter, golf is golf and it's just another tourney. No that's wrong. More than half of the normal field are already cut.
Sabbatini to win 28-1 SIA. And here's why. Rory is playing great golf, again. Earlier in the year, Sabb won one after 3 really good weeks. Well, this is the 4th week again, and this time I'm ready. He's scoring really well without playing great. Gets a few bogeys every round. Eliminate the boo-boos and we have a winner.
This weeks good guys---
Clark, Perry, Glover, Sabbatini
The fade list---
Mahan, Pettersson, Byrd, and Wilson.
Last week, my lists were dead on, almost. Rose tanked it, missed the cut, but the rest of the guys did well and made me money. The fade list was even better. 2 missed cuts, and 2 make the cut on the number and then blow up on the weekend. Only Pernice did half way decent.
2 match-ups played so far.
Els over Furyk -115 WSEX--- I believe Ernie is playing to his maximum, not a superstar anymore, his new maximum. He leaves a shot or two out there, where he never did before. Furyk is the key. I think he is still affected by injury, or playing so as not to reinjure. Anyway, he's not his old self.
Snedeker over Mahan +100 WSEX---Sned woke up last Monday, and shot a 66 for the final round. It doesn't take the young guys 2 or 3 tournaments to get back in the groove. I'm betting that he's back to his former self, playing great golf. Mahan, no. He's out of it, he knows it. He's playing for Christmas money, and he's guarenteed to get paid. This is even in my book, I'll take the plus money.
Does Tiger win this? Every week I think not. And 2 out of 3 weeks I'm right. He should win this week, and would win it if Phil was playing, but with Lefty out, I'm not so sure. When Phil pulled out, Tiger's odds went down, I think they should have went up! Incentive, reciprosity, rivals, whatever. All that is gone.
This is a wide open soft course this week. A bombers dream come true. Par 71 and long. Big hitters have an advantage. Remember that. And good luck as always---Tommy
Weekly salute to DellDude parlay---
This one wins easier than a 20-1 outright winner, I believe. A month ago I hit 6 for 6 in round 1, 3-balls. Not parlayed though. Still paid pretty high .
Austin over Badds and Howell3 2.70, coupled with
Sabbatini over Furyk and Singh 3.00, coupled with
Perry over OHair and OHern 2.50, Pays 20.25 SIA
I've had my account with SIA for 3 years, neither reupped nor withdrawn any amounts. I have doubled my deposit over that time, not great, but better than losing. I call it a big battle, and it's a whole lotta fun. Not a great golf book, but better than most.
nice write up tommy thanks......why is phil not showing? spending time with his family? thats very sweet...its also why he'll always be an also ran to tiger... tiger has more heart in his little toe, than mick will ever have......
The parlay went down. Austin and Sabbatini were easy winners. Perry double bogeys the 18th to lose by one. That would have made me really healthy for the year. I got my money's worth of excitement though.
I like the way SIA handles 3-ball ties. You get your bet back plus half of the winnings. In a 3-way tie, you get your bet back, plus 1/3 of the winnings. This is a really nice break for the players.
I figured Byrd to blow it this week. He didn't and he's not. He might win. I forgot how long he is off the tee. He is averaging well over 3 bills.
Rory is steady average, so far. I bet the fatigue is getting to him.
No plays on the weekend, it's going to be a losing week.
I'm glad you got Rose, and here's why. A half dozen times this year, the guy I picked to win, won the following week! And since I took Justin last week...
I wouldn't hex you by getting him myself. You're going to win this all by yourself.
Looks like this is Sned's round of the week. 5 under after 10. I need both of my m/u's to keep this week from a disaster. 3-8 for the 3-balls might be an average result, but I need/want better.
Looking forward to next year already.
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