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The Masters is over, and now, back to normal. Went 4-1 last week match-ups, bounced around the dailys for a small profit too. Congratulations to Zach for winning the jacket. I just went over my records for the last few years and discovered that I've only backed Johnson 1 time. I have used him many times in M/U's though.
This weeks course, Harbor Town Golf Links, Hilton head Is. S.C. is a par 71, shortish, tree lined deal. Short hitters have a shot here, and putting well on these small greens is a premium. I discovered that the course is 230 years old. Possibly the oldest in America, going back to the 1700's. The island is not really an island in the sense that it is surrounded by massive water, just a bridge over from the "mainland". Much like Grizzly Is. in the Bay Area delta.
Interesting note---DL3 has won this 5 times, from 1987 to 2003. He was 2nd in '05. Now, I'm not high on DL3, and haven't been for a few years now, but damn, that's some horse for that course. DL is one of my favorite fade guys. If a player can recognize a past superstar, on the downside of his career, before anyone, especially the bookmakers, then serious money can be made. DL has "undelivered" many wins for myself, but this one week, I think I'll stay off him.
My pick this week is Lucas Glover, 40-1 Oly. It seems like I'm on this guy every half dozen weeks or so. Won for me once. Lucas was T20 at the Masters, is 8-2 in cuts this year, won 631K so far in '07, and his avg. finish is 26.33. This is kind of a stab here, but he plays this course well and finished high last year. The odds are fair, not great, just a fair bet.
When the M/U's come out, I'll probably have 4 or 5 plays.
I'm looking to back Furyk, Taylor, Kelly, Olgilvy, Glover and Ames. This looks like an obvious group, and I guess it is. I have good reasons for all of them, but it takes too much time to list it all.
My fade list. This is where I make the dough. OHair, Rollins, Immelman, OHern, Villegas, and Gore. Interestingly, all these guys missed last years cut. Some are doing well this year (OHern) and some are blowing it hard (OHair, Villegas) Occasionly I get a match-up with a guy from the back list versus a guy from the fade list. Those are almost always free money.
YTD Down a couple hun, but as usual, losing on the outrights, winning at the M/U's. GLTA
Here's 5 M/U's I took for this week.
Calc over OHern -110 Calc is oldish and reliable, OHern is tired.
Olgilvy over Els +100 Els is one of those fading superstar deals.
Glover over Badds -110 Badds won this last year, I might be sorry on this one.
Taylor over Rose +120 I think they're even, so I'll take the plus money.
Olgilvy over Cink -110 This is my best bet of the week. Geoff is one of the top 5 golfers in the world, Cink can play well once in awhile, unless there's something going on I don't know about, this is a mismatch.
Here's a round 1 bet for those too impatient to wait for Sunday.
R1 Slocum over Els and Maggert +175
All at the Greek---The odds are fair I guess, for US customers, but I really, really, want to get a betfair account. More than that, I wish someone would take over the Golfing Gods site. Anyone with a slight clue can make money at those outs.
Another interesting note---Dean Wilson, over the last 2 years, plays his Saturday round 3 OR 4 SHOTS better than his other 3 rounds. Wow, that is a hell of a stat. Looking at Wilson for round 3 match-ups.
Get 'em men. Tommy
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