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Old 04-06-2003, 06:49 PM
j j is online now
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Join Date: Jul 2000
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manly,

I wasn't able to find it either. Probably was one of those good discussions that sometimes breaks out in a thread on an entirely different topic.

For what it's worth here are three of the things that always get said in discussions of baseball totals pricing.

1) Totals values are ballpark specific, and to a lesser degree day-night specific (worth a bit less during the day). Now whether run values are sensitive to these things depends on whether you think the linesmaker has adquequitely incorporated them into the set totals.

2) Since there can be no ties in baseball, odd totals land more than even and that makes the onto even numbers worth less than the onto odds.

3) The fact that the home team doesn't bat in the ninth if it's ahead reduces the game AB's by 3/54, and some people have formulas for factoring that in when their capping gives them a signal against the game line the home team will win.



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