I believe that what happened in your example, is that the high-odds-to-one bet (+1000) released most of the additional value in the $100 matchplay. The positive ev from the scalp in your example is what pushes it all the way up to $100. To further illustrate this, let's instead consider a break-even scalp at -1000. In this case, you win $100 unless the underdog wins. So the ev in this scenario is:
$100 - $100*(prob of underdog victory) = ninety-something dollars
If you select three random (-110) sides to put in a 3-teamer, you will hit it one out of eight times or 12.5% of the time. So, your ev will be $600 * 12.5% = $75, again greater than $50 value. If you can find three sides that are break-even plays (52.38% plays), your hit rate will be 14.37% and the ev will be $86.23.
I normally find it easier to pick three sides that have a little line advantage in them, than to find a -1000 +1000 situation, let alone -900 +1000. |