Dingle,
You are right that I meant scalps that are concurrently available, not borne out of leads. The principle is the same, but the amount you bet is so much more, in my example, that it would be too great a risk for my "unable/willing to effectively take lead" azz. I do this MOSTLY with golf moneyline matchup bets where "simultaneous" scalps are not as rare as they are in other sports and these situations don't often involve matchups where leads are viable. I'm not betting 21 units as a lead, but for a simultaneous scalp where I effectively risk 1 unit to win 4 on a favorite. For that kind of angle - hell yes I'm willing to put that much out.
TA,
I think what I am saying is just because you are always posting back up with Pinn doesn't mean you lose every bet there. Even if you lose 55% you will be posting up with them consistently. But I'm not going to stop taking advantage of scalps or middles there ( where I may bet 20 units or more ) to only bet 1-2 units on the other side elsewhere. Its not a 100% thing and I have had streaks where I've beaten Pinn just not like other outs and many report they are a predominantly "unlucky" book for them as well!
I don't trust their prowess that much just yet and besides I like to either bet my opinion ( or partial scalp off it), OR middle/scalp a bit. I'm just not into using a book's opinion to bet on. I've done it a little, but like piggy-backing it isn't the same thing for me. On sports I cap and have an educated opinion on I play my own picks, on those I don't cap well I have no real great desire to follow others or play off the book's prowess, but I'll middle/scalp where the opp presents itslf because there is more of a guarantee than if the guy or book goes cold on you. It's a bit like pro scalpers. Many will shade the scalp so that they win the max when the dog wins and break even otherwise. They shade/partial scalp down to breaking even or winning. The thought is the dog side is the sharp one. I don't do that UNLESS I have an opinon and then I shade whichever way I like not just the dog. Otherwise I want to earne off the scalp either way and not shade based on a "questionably sharp" rule of thumb.
Playing angles to help me get the most out of my capping and my opinion, or middling/scalping, is where I'm at in the evolutionary process. Betting off a book's opinion is something I've dabbled with but am not that keen on yet. Just like reading sharp books to help take leads or any of the other "reads" pros use. I'm far from that level, admittedly! I agree with your point that if their opinion is that strong then use it. I'm just not there quite yet. Have you done this a lot? If so, has it worked? Anyone else do it succxessfully ( I don't even see why you wouldn't reveal where as you are betting ELSEWHERE based on that shop's shade not at that shop, so it won't kill the goose to let us know!). BTW, I dabble with it a bit off OLY's golf lines, if they show opinion then bet the other side, its a good read!
GL2All  |