TA,
While I understand your points I'm not sure I agree that books get in trouble because of too much opinion/gamble or that every book when in trouble starts goosing lines. But even if that were the case, you can always select ONLY lines that are consensus at the bad book and somewhat opinionated at a good book and that you like the team at the good book to cover! What Philo was referring to in 3. I'd also say it takes selectivity to find lines scalpable or middle-able and that you have a strong opinion on. That's why I found myself upping my bet size dramatically in these circumstances.
This is what I like about Philo. Months ago he corrected me on the error of "middling out" and the fallacy of playing "against" un-recoverable or questionable funds, and now he is smart enough to argue the other stance in defense of a "ganged up on buddy -turk"! Gotta like the guy! I've been known to argue both sides of an argument myself![img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]
I remember posting about my first middle-out and saying I never heard of anyone else doin it. I got lots of posts, at a different site, telling me it is old hat and has been done for ages to recover funds from stiffs. I understand the risks and pitfalls, but it isn't that rare an occurance from what I've gathered over the years. That doesn't make it smart, nor do the examples of some of us mitigate the risks, its just something worth thinking about and evaluating on your own. Kind of like parlays aren't for many players or middling, etc. Many say parlays are the dumbest bet you can make.
I actually wish I had been able to middle out of Cam, I definitely would have done it there. I think the sports and bet types make a difference to their "middle-out-able" status as well, along with the chances of getting paid after all.
Another factor may be how many outs you have. I think many get bit because they have many outs and go for some perks that make the book a bit more at risk to begin with. So there is a bit of gambler in many who use these outs. I know that contributed to my having 5 problems, the last two I had no opp to middle out even if I wanted to. AllWorld was lamenting the fact that players seem to be more about bonuses and perks than their post-up segregation policy to insure post-up. Course that may have just been an advertising ploy to get players feeling sorry for them too! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] Having many outs increases exposure and many who have many outs probably are more willing to try to middle out than a one out square. But you need a decent amount of outs to have any chance of doing this as well, IMO.
I can tell you this, it is NEVER FUN! It sucks bigtime! But let's not fault turk for TRYING TO PROVIDE SOME USEFULL INFO. It's up to randyrohm or whomever to use it or pass. I know I was much better off getting out quick than the mental toll and uncertainty of the long wait! But I still can't recommend it to anyone else!
JMHO  |