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Old 10-17-2002, 11:48 PM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2001
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hi Philo,

I have not had the chance to finish your entire post yet.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

But early on, I think it is a mistake to assume the likelihood is 50% for each decision,

if a book is slow paying it stands to reason their lines are weak, it seems ultimately a disproportionate amount of your success will be at the bad book and that is why it is bad to begin with.

if the argument goes it's close enough to 50% to bail out, because X is better then zero, the problem is the more desparate the bad book gets, the greater chance that will be your winning side.

TA
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