Great advice, Mach.
Taking a real life example, here's what WSEX has for tonight's game:
Event Series Name Series Bid Ask
CF-09-27-B TEXAS TECH -8.5 16688 49 54
CF-09-27-B NEW MEXICO +8.5 16689 46 51
I happen to think Tech is going to cover, but let's say that NM scores the opening touchdown. Suddenly, Tech would be trading around $30 right? Do I need statistically analysis behind me to look up 8 or more point favorites who give up the opening TD and then come back to cover, or do I just pull the trigger on my gut feeling that the first TD was a fluke and by and large Tech will score the next couple of times and I can either sell right there for a profit or hold to the end of the game?
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My second question, if you will excuse me, is taking this hypothesis one step further:
Say everything I just said happened. NM scored the opening TD, Tech dropped down to $30 and I bought ten contracts and then Tech scored the next two TDS and the second quarter starts with Tech at bout 59-64.
How often do you sell at that point or do you hold til the end? Do you use mathematically statistics to back you up here or is gut?
My biggest problem is not BUYING at the right time, but SELLING at the right time.
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Any advice you may lend would be much appreciated...  |