Holy Bull
I wont be able to make you a price, but will have a stab at the theory of the problem.
To me it seems to basically come down to one thing. After 1 team has scored, will the other team answer in any form, therefore taking the total over. (I am working on the assumption that once a team has scored, the opposing team has 1 drive to score. If the rule is a drive each, then please correct me).
If Team scores a field goal, the other team must score at least a field goal, or a TD. Both would mean that the total will go over.(I am also assuming that games cant end in ties, please correct me again, if wrong, I am not 100% familiar with the NCAA rules).
So we would first have to look at the different scenarios to push the total over.
Team A Field Goal + Team B to score in the possesion.
Team A TD + Team B TD (I assume they would not kick a field goal, can just imagine the "Fix" threads here if they ever did).
Obviously you have some other variables, but they would be inherent in your probs for each team to score(Based on each teams perceived strentgh on either side of the ball).
Assuming I am correct, all we need now are the %'s of these 2 scenarios which would send the Total over. Compound them, and Bob's yer Uncle!!!!
Like I say, if anyone spots any areas way I have not looked at the problem correctly, please point them out. These interactive problems are a great thing to discuss, and I have certainly been reading with interest!!!!!
Dingle
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