superbook:
Glad to see you've enjoyed it.
However, I disagree with this extreme caution that you have (and many other people I have spoken to have) regarding in-progress betting. Yes, it is unlikely that you will get to my level of thinking without a ton of research and years of experience; but, you wouldn't avoid betting on a college football game just because you don't have the informational contacts and analytical abilities of BW or Tiger or BB or whoever. The scenario is exactly the same, really. If you can get down a little earlier than them, you can still get the number that they are betting. If not, are betting into a number that these guys do not think is worthwhile betting at this point.
The same thing is going on in the in-progress. Sometimes I know there is value and I am just waiting for it to get completely ripe before grabbing it. In that case, if you can recognize it you can sneak in ahead of me and the other big sharp players in the interactive. In all other scenarios, the price is what it is because the big players are not trading it much or are giving balanced action to both the buy and the sell. If you have a good, solid idea to apply the scenario that none of the other big players are using, you can profit.
There are tons of ideas that I ignore. For example, I absolutely no belief in the mysterious concept of "momentum". Other than injuries and weather, I will not adjust my concept of what each team's strength in future plays based on this momentum mumbo-jumbo. If you are certain that momentum has an effect on play, then I certainly won't be standing in the way of you making a profit.  |