Good work everyone. I agree closely with Oakley's assessment, that a FG is better than a TD for a SL cover at the 8:00 mark. As I was trading this game throughout the 3rd quarter (the score was 13-7 at the half and throughout the 3Q), I kept thinking to myself, boy, a SL TD is all that much better than a SL FG. Towards the end of the 3rd Q I was thinking, I am indifferent between the two. And then it got to the point where in my eyes, the FG was more dangerous for the cover.
OK, here's my breakdown (all prices in terms of SL -2.5):
<u>(a) SL FG at 8:00</u>
Here is one way to "bound" this problem: What is the probability if SL was tied at 8:00? In that case it would be pretty close to $50 (with TB getting the ball and Faulk hurt). The 3 point difference hurts some, but not too badly because the potential overtime scenario is preserved. So right away I am thinking somewhere in the 30's, probably low 30's.
After the SL FG at 8:00, if TB scores at all, they would almost certainly cover. If they don't, SL still has to be priced a little less than their potential price after they get another FG. That is to say, a (sane) SL coach would "take" a sure thing FG if you offered it to him at the start of his drive, but it is a decently close call. So I am thinking around $42 is the right price on the SL drive start. A TB score has to be more likely than not, so my final estimate (which confirms the estimate in the other paragraph) is:
SL FG at 8:00 = $30
<u>(b) SL TD at 8:00</u>
PickSix makes the point in support of SL that if there were 5 or 6 minutes remaining instead of 8, that SL would be in a much weaker position. I think that he has the right idea, that this is a situation that is ultra-sensitive to time, but I think that we already have elapsed a couple of very crucial minutes (the time from 11:00 to 8:00) and that a SL FG is doubtful without a TB turnover (See also Oakley's good rebuttal).
Most of your SL covers in this scenario are going to occur off of either TB turnovers or broken plays on offense, particularly if TB runs even one in-bounds play to take a little time off of the clock. So, since most of the covers are going to be "off the wall"-type plays, I don't want to analyze this price by thinking "OK, what will SL be if they get the ball back with 5:30 to go on their own 30" because that will not be the primary method of covering IMO.
I just thought of another scenario under which SL can cover 2.5. A TB TD + 2pt conversion would give them a 7 pt lead and reintroduce the chance of OT. A TB TD + missed 2pt conversion would allow SL to score a TD and then go for two. So I think SL covers can come from one of three avenues:
TB turnover (in their own end)
TB punt and SL scores despite waning time
TB scores TD, and revitalizes SL inititive
Those are arranged in order of most likely to least likely, although the contribution to SL's value is roughly equal amongst each of them. Also, don't forget, in all three scenarios a SL score does not end the game unless they do it with almost no time left. TB will have one last drive to cover. So, here we have another bound, that SL is most likely not going to be more than 75 even if they get their score.
Despite being highly mathematically inclined, I firmly believe that at some point you have to drop the math and the sims and just go by feel, because there is just too many subtle things going on. This is that point IMO. Having identifed the three avenues of covering, I am going to estimate a 32% chance of one of them happening and resulting in SL taking the lead ATS, with 75% of those holding on against TB re-covering. All together, I am making the price:
(b) SL TD at 8:00 = $24
This is a little higher than I initially thought I was going to make it, since I didn't realize the TB touchdown avenue. So, yes, I agree with Oakley that the FG is more dangerous, although my values for SL are a little stronger than his (a) SL = $25 and (b) SL < $25.  |