Market efficiency tells me that the $20 bill I just found on the street does not exist, and yet I just put it my pocket...who said that? Wasn't it Milton Friedman? Geeze I forget, my Economics was about 30+ years ago (I majored in it along with Mathematics)...and I still to this day regard it as a "dark" science.
Anyway, this was the point of my original Q. My rule of thumb is: when I can see a difference of approx 5% (55% with 11/10 vig), I pull the trigger. But then what do I do when the dif goes to 10% a minute or so later? I then term it a separate occurance, and pull the trigger again. However, I do wait until I see things go over the 5% thresholds. I'd probably give any particular game "3 bumps max" even though I know I should bet every occurance when I see a calculated advantage. But, as I don't want to have too much bux tied up in one game whose win probs are correlated to a level that I'm incapable of calculating at this point, I set a rule and follow...and then spend tons of time later trying to find an optimal way of working the problem.  |