For what it's worth, the sim has TB+2.5, up by 6, 12:22 left in game, SL on 20 with an 86% chance of winning the game ATS, therefore SL has a 14% chance of an ATS win.
If SL kicks FG at minute 8.00 then SL win chance goes to 13% (4:36 minutes dif has an impact!)
If SL makes TD (seven pts) at minute 8.00 then SL win chance is: 39% |