I'll give it a try and put it together (I really don't know what I'm doing so please tell me where I've gone wrong):
X = chance of rams FG on this drive
Y = chance of rams TD on this drive
Z = chance of rams Catastrophic possesion (grouping of everything resulting in either a score or likely score for TB...basically an immediate TO or a late TO + runback)
1-(X+Y+Z) chance of punt
If X, I'd put the number at around 27 (slightly higher than oak and p6), either way this is a pretty vanilla scenario.
If Y, I think the number would be about 25 (Oak pointed out that TB would be less conservative, this inflates the number because it preserves time and increases a TO,either straight or on downs.)
If Z, you start approaching low enough to 0 that I clumped this together. With TB up 9, they'd be going for a TD + FG (1 pt win). With a TB td, you are down either 12 or 14 depending on the 2 pt result. This is better off than a TB FG as we almost saw last night if the rams could have completed that last drive + 2 pt conversion, but still pretty disasterous. Only place there is value is a TB catastrophic possession (missed FG/TO). Will put this bunch together at 8.
If 1-(X+Y+Z), assuming 8 minuts again, I'll put this # at 16. This may be a little high?
So we have 27x+25y+8z+17(1-(X+Y+Z) = 10x+8y-9z+16. Looking at a total of maybe 19?
Looks like the real key here is accurately pricing the scenerio after a punt since the chance of a TD is really only giving you 2-3 points on the total as is a FG.
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