Hi Mach,
I'm always trying to look at the game as a coach might look at it. In a situation like yours above, if I laid the -2.5 on Stl, I want the Rams to kick a fg on this drive much more than I want them to score a td. A Stl fg has them down 3 and kicking off with 8 minutes left in the game (I'll use that # since thats what you have in your question). With TB up, the likelihood of a TB score decreases dramatically as they become more conservative with play calling and try to keep the clock rolling. Assuming Stl gets the ball back down 3 pts, you have 2 shots at covering. A Stl fg to send it to ot or a Stl td. Either way they are in 4 down mode in their last drive.
If Stl scores a td with 8 minutes left and go up 1, I think you've got big problems. TB becomes more aggressive with the ball knowing that they need a score. If Stl manages to stop their drive, then they become the passive offense as they try and burn clock (although with a lunatic like Martz you never know).
I think without Faulk their is no doubt that TB is favored or at worst a Pick em pre-game.
So, In answer to your question I think I would tend to lean more towards TB with them down 1 and 8 minutes to go than I would with them up 3. Both scenarios they are the favorite:
With TB Up 3 after the Stl Fg, I'd have them around 75
With TB Down 1 after the Stl TD, I'd have them a couple pts higher than that (I believe this # would be in the low 80's with a team with a more conservative coach and a better running game than the Rams had last night)
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