[Machiavelli]

...is a function of the opportunity benefits and potential opportunity costs betting now versus betting later.

If I were playing against a new interactive market maker for the very first time, I would probably be kicking myself at the end of the game because I either fired too early or totally missed an opportunity by waiting too long. In reality, I shouldn't be kicking myself because there was really no way of knowing the characteristics of that market; of how, when, and why the value appears and disappears.

As far as dollar amounts for when to pull the trigger, I will tell you that they are different for every market (I play mostly at WSEX and some at tradesports), different for every sport, and even different for the types of plays in each sport (i.e. dealing with favorites that are leading, dealing with favorites that are trailing, dealing with pick'em games that are looking like early blowouts, etc.).

The price discrepancies at which I'll pull the trigger should be different for each trader, for two reasons:

1) I am looking to make multiple maximum orders (50 contracts per order at WSEX) on each event, so it sometimes involves a slightly different strategy. You might be looking for a maximum total position of less than one full order, or more multiples of 50 than I am looking for. This is not to say that a person looking for a maximum position of 20 contracts should always buy the entire 20 at one pop, but sometimes he should so it is at least an option which is not the case for me.

2) The concept of "market efficiency", and how it pertains to your price estimate. Basically, market efficiency provides that if something looks too good to be true, it probably is. IOW, if your handicapping says that a certain play is a 70% winner on a -110 line, then certainly you are not totally correct (and maybe not correct at all). I must say, I don't consciousously consider my own market efficency unless I am constantly seeing the same type of play over and over again each night; and even in those cases, all I will do is try to re-examine the situation from every possible angle to try to find an error in my analysis. If I am unable to find an error or a different way of viewing the situation, I plow ahead at full speed assuming that I am right and everyone else is wrong. I do not recommend this type of recklessness for someone who is new to in-progress trading. It is much safer to go through the same re-examination processes that I do, but in the end assume that you are at least a little bit wrong if you are unable to find anything different.

I have found that the solution to this problem via through a subjective, intuitive thought process over the course of time. Everyone's personal optimal solution should be different. The price discrepencies that I wait to pull the trigger at range from $2 to $8 depending on the situation.