<< I got EV = .194 as per your calcs, but then to get the ROI you have to divide by the risk amount, which for a straight bet of 2 units would be .2, so .194 / .2 = .97. >>
cz,
I'd say the risk on a 2.2 straight bet is 2.2, not .2! The risk on a middle of 1.1 each side is .1 because you can't lose both bets and the worst result is -.1. With a straight, even at 57% expectation, each bet "risks" the entire amount as 43% of the time you will be -2.2. So a ROI expectation is .194/2.2=8.8% (as PM stated ) compared to the "profit expectation"(not a true ROI) of 50% for that "3" middle. BTW, now that AG is gone those aren't that easy to find outside maybe taking leads or using locals - but that muddies the waters.
GL
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