Conrad...
we're not interested in the 33/1. Correlation is way too strong.
Alec...
I'm always interested in the Eastern European approach to bookmaking. My teacher in this business was a Russian who was taking action before I was born. (Oleg, if you're reading this, call me, damn it.)
you write: "Lines with high margins are better than no lines at all!"
You might be right, but it's not Pinnacle's style. There is most definitely a market niche for books that offer mountains of props at 1.83 each side, 1.80 each side, 1.75 each side etc. It's not a niche we're interested in pursuing. What we offer, we offer at thin margins. 10-cent soccer, NFL, NBA, NHL; 8-cent baseball ML, 10-cent totals, 10-cent runlines.
The volume I'm writing on the soccer props doesn't justify the mathematical grinding that would be required on these to get them in the neighbourhood of 4% hold. We've put up "to advance" in Euro 2000 and in the UEFA Cup since and our client base is such that the volume of all those props together was likely less than our 5-cent-special on the Real Madrid--Leverkusen handicap. I'm writing gobs of 2- and 5-dime bites on the first round handicaps, but am finding it hard to get nibbles on my 2-way "to win WC" stuff. On day of match we'll take 20K/bet on the handicaps and that's going to be fun.
I like props as much as the next guy but in terms of business, I have a sneaky suspicion it's the Asians who really know what's happening when it comes to cashing in. Write a truckload of money on the handicap at juice-95, hold half-of-one percent of fourteen gazillion dollars, and don't trouble your head about totals, to advance props, or whether Sven Goran-Eriksson is caught applauding a Swedish goal against England on camera.
Thanks for your ideas, and feel free to have the last word on it.
Cheers,
Shawn  |