point spread analysis There has been a lot of talk about the value of 3 and 7 in Football and the expected number of times a game would land on these numbers.
But do we really care about all the games? Wouldn't it be more valuable to have it broken down to the number of times a team at home favored by 2,3,4 actually won by 3? or as a visitor etc.
14 should land very few times with all the games considered but how many times does a favorite of 13,14, 0r 15 actually win by 14? Wouldn't it be a considerably higher %? |