[The Actuary]

Hope everyone had a chance to see the best 2yo on the planet yesterday, he made light work of a fairly talented field. I just hope if/when the rematch occurs with Johannesburg, that the betting is as strong for the foreigner as the online diatribe. And NO I didn't bet at 3/2, just a huge Siphon fan and would like to see his progeny succeed.

HOLLYWOOD STARLET 9TH(12/16/01) 1 1/16 2YO FILLIES G1 200K

Talkeetna-Gomez for Greeley-Capote youngster sports an 0 for 1 record, running an OK 4th chasing wide. Seems a very unlikely winner but you cannot throw anyone out in a five horse race. Particularly a front end type on the inside, there is greater than an even money chance she sets the pace. I'll post a high enough number to justify the value.

Renaissance Woman-Solis for Bray-Deputy Minister filly with two lifetime outs, neither awe inspiring nor hinting at stakes material. She ran OK in her last, showing good patience waiting for the hole, than running away. But the field was non-descript at best. I suppose if they go fast enough and the rest stop she could........another who I'd normally toss, but cannot do that in such a short field. So the manra as with the one above holds, I'll post a number and watch the board.

You-Bailey for Frankel-The most accomplished of the bunch, she obviously didn't have her A game at the BC. Should note Prado gone for jedi master Bailey will only detract from an already too short price. She's in for the tough chase/stalk trip, but most importantly her form is overrated IMO, it will be very hard to get a high enough price to justify value. (side note Frankel and Co. did post 10 large for her to get in, IMO BFD 4th is a break even spot)

Habitity-Espinoza for Baffert-Another that didn't bring it in the BC, stumbling at the gate never to be seen again. She'll probably sit 4th and look to make a long sustained move. She'll need to be on edge to get the job done, is there any better at getting them ready than Baffert. I suspect she is closer to You than the crowd will figure, given a reasonable line most value bettors will be casting their lot here.

Tali'sluckybride-Valdivia for Marquez-Undefeated Washington bred, is coming off a nice effort in an ultra weak Oak Leaf. The bargain basement Delineator filly should be a forward factor, but am of the belief her pedestrian roots will show through here and her perfect record will come to an end.

Just a note as posted here last spring, I've basically sworn off races with less than 8 entrants, for a host of economic reasons all which come to the same conclusion. SHORT FIELDS ARE REAL BANKROLL DEPLETERS LONG TERM.

Chances
You 39%
Habitity 37%
Tali'sluckybride 11%
Talkeetna 8%
Renaissance Woman 5%

Most likely end up with one of the longer prices here, in a short field that should be the case more times than not.

Just one man's opinion!
Best of luck,
TA