 Matchbook Experiment: Day 1
Day 1 of my Matchbook experiment has concluded and I've learned a couple things from MB, the thread I started earlier and the PMs that I've been getting on this experiment.
PATIENCE: I was starting to get a little worried when none of my numbers were being matched. However, it's amazing how many do end up getting matched as game time gets closer. In almost literally a blink of an eye I went from 2 matched bets to more than 10 matched bets. The money really does roll in late on a game and you have to be ready with a number already hanging.
PLAY THE NUMBERS: Playing an exchange is something that you have to do for your own numbers instead of whats out there in the rest of the world. The matches that I managed to get yesterday were very juicy because I managed to get "upside down" on a couple of games. Two examples:
TEXAS/TAMPA BAY - Over 8: +108
TEXAS/TAMPA BAY - Under 8: -104
HOUSTON/CINCI - Over 9.5: +108
HOUSTON/CINCI - Under 9.5 -106
So, not the greatest edges in the world, but you do this enough times over the course of a season and it starts to add up. That's only 2 examples, I had at least 2 others. Obviously, these numbers have little correlation to what someone like Pinny had, but my personal numbers are what's important and these would show a profit over the long-term
WRITE THE ACTION: In "The Book on Bookies", Jeffries write that the more action you write, the more money you make. This certainly makes sense any time that you're making people lay odds. So, I played literally every game on the board yesterday and even did the Grand Salami. It's almost like fishing, you gotta give yourself enough opportunities to write action. This also serves to diversify my games for the day. Since no bet is more than 5% and I'm diversifying, I'd like to think that my risk-of-ruin (RoR) is relatively low on any given day. BTW, the 5% is coming from a rough Kelly Criterion estimation, so it's valid number to prevent RoR.
END RESULT: I lived to fight another day and showed a profit of 3.5 units yesterday.  |