 O/U pitcher/team ratings
You might have Capuano confused with another guy.
He's 10-8 for a team that's 52-59
He's got an ERA of 3.87...with a K/BB ratio of 132/31
He's fallen back to earth a bit since the ASB...but I don't think you could call THAT an awful year.
But...I do agree with the general point that run support plays a big impact here. I'd prefer a methodology that didn't include run support. That's been proven to be random about 1,000 times over I think by stathead studies the past 15 years.
I think Halladay on the Over might be a better example of the dangers. You wouldn't normally think of him as a guy in Overs. The fact that he has been this year isn't necessarily an indicator that it will continue. Most of the guys listed do have team O/U records going in the direction NFLEQ would have suggested. Might be hard to separate out the randomness from the indicator....so you just have to live with some amount of finger-crossing in the percentages...
I'd also prefer seeing an algebraic formula lead to the "number" then just averaging the two together. If 12.0 guy is facing a 12.0 guy...those influences would typically magnify each other in a way that lifts the number above 12.
If an NFL team scores 24 on offense...and is facing a defense that allows 24...then the offense is more likely to score 28-34 than they are 24...  |