[blogguy]

We've got an ultimate harmonic convergence tonight when Liriano of Minnesota faces Detroit...the team that strikes out the most of anyone in the AL.

Not surprisingly...it's a high line.

Liriana Over 7.5 -117

You don't see many 7.5's in this stat. But, I actually still get a grading to the Over. His median the last seven starts is 8 (from high to low, it's 6-7-7-8-8-10-12...which mean's he's cleared the 7.5 hurdle 57% of the time in his last seven starts when NOT facing the league's worst strikeout team). His strikeouts per six innings is 7.3 for the year at home. So...if he only goes six innings against a generic team....he's at the threshold. Going six against a bad K team might put him over already. And...you'd have to think 7 innings is more likely than six innings.

The math is saying he gets to 8 strikeouts by the end of six innings against Detroit...and there's a chance he goes seven innings anyway. Of course...Detroit's got some lumber and might connect early against him. No sure things in baseball...and the margin for error is taken away a bit because it's a high line. All I'm saying is that the math suggests the vig should be higher, or the line should be 8.5 Under rather than 7.5 Over.

We get a lesser harmonic convergence with F. Hernandez of Seattle on the road against Cleveland.

Hernandez Over 5.5 -120

His median is 6 the last seven starts (4-4-5-6-6-6-9 from high to low, also cleaing the threshold 57% of the time against a sampling of opposition...Cleveland is third worst in the league at offensive strikeouts). The numbers say he should get there in six innings. He's been less trustworthy than Liriano of course in terms of lasting deep into games though.

Bedard is in action again tonight. He's had great numbers lately, as has been reported up in the Mess Hall. It's not a harmonic convergence because of the stadium. But...his recent form suggests a strong grading.

Bedard Over 5.5 -160

His median over the last seven starts (which corresponds to when he learned a change-up) is 7...which clears the hurdle by 1.5. Those have been extremely solid for us. (6-6-6-7-7-9-12 from high to low...not that ALL SEVEN clear the 5.5 hurdle). His K per 6 inning mark for the year at home is just 4.7...but that includes the weeks before he caught fire. Even with that number...it would get you close to the threshold in six innings vs. the WHite Sox (5th worst in the league in offensive K's)... and Bedard's typically going 7 innings since he got hot.

So...my favorite tonight is Bedard, followed by Liriano and Hernandez of Seattle.

Note that Pedro Martinez would grade out on a normal night in Atlanta....but the layoff from injury suggests its best not to use him until he's established he's back in form.

Note that Myers of Philly has been pitching great since returning, and Florida K's a lot (2nd worst in the NL). But...pinny jumped that up to 6.5 -121...which is higher than Myer's full season numbers would suggest is appropriate. It should be noted that Nolasco may strike out once or twice if he gets to bat that many times (new pitchers reek, and he's near 50% K's as a hitter I believe). Those of you who believe Myers is extra motivated to pitch well because of what happened may want to consider him as well...

Because of time contstraints I'm focusing more on Overs than Unders. The results and the "feel" of those watching the games has been dicier since this prop got on the radar for me.