[blogguy]

Thanks for the comment SP. Normally I agree with you wholeheartedly about high prices. I'd have to say though that the high juice props with strikeouts have typically been winning enough to cover the vig. And...I'm talking about all of them, not just the ones that grade out for me.

I think I said in an earlier post that the high juice typically represents the smart money in obscure props like this. The public doesn't bet them. So, if you see a big number...it's one the people who know the stat have hit hard already...or were likely to hit hard if the number were lower. Time will tell if the high numbers take away the value or not. Normally they do. In this prop...that hasn't been happening yet.

The 200 or more favorites have been winning more than 2 out of 3 times on the days I've been following...

The 150 or more favorites have been winning more than 60% of the time on the days I've been following.

So...to this point...the juice isn't scary. Might just be a short term sample though over a couple of weeks. The fact that this is pretty much a prop that ONLY sharps are betting might mean we have to adjust our perceptions for what the moneylines mean. Time will tell...