Tuesday Strikeouts July 25 Didn't get a chance to post results right after the games. Final family airport shuttle is now complete!
Harmonic Convergences
Ortiz Under 2.5 -111 (loses with 5)
Snell Over 4.5 -135 (wins with 9)
Santana Over 4.5 -145 (wins with 6)
Santana Over 6.5 -159 (loses with 6)
Redman Under 2.5 -159 (loses with 4
I'd listed Santana of the Angels as my favorite...and he cleared by 1.5. Santano fo the Twins in the second spot just missed...but was on pace for the number all night. Snell has explosive numbers when he's on. You just never know for sure when he'll be on. Snell has 5 or more in 6 of his last 8 starts FYI. The two scary Unders both lost as each guy lasted deeper into the game then expected. Redman dodged bullets, stranding 10 runners in the first 5 innings I believe. Looks like you really need those guys to get knocked out for it to be a percentage play. Still learning with those...stats are more erratic because they go 2 innings...then 6...then 3...then 6. The consistent "high K" guys are more likely to go 6 or more every time.
Harmonic convergences go 2-3 for the night...but it's more like 2 and 4.2 with the moneylines. If you played LAA's Santana for more, that helped soften the blow. Gradings with the high guys have been really consistent. You almost always get close at the very least. Will probably devote more energy to them as we continue. One of those things where the "low" guys win when I leave them out, and lose when I include them. So far the best value has been high gradings where recent form suggests the number is 1.5 runs too low.
Others worth considering
*Sheets Under 5.5 -152 (wins with 5...note that he started out slowly, then picked up steam later...a good sign for his next few starts)
*Clemens Over 4.5 -162 (loses with 4, final batter had an 0-2 count but a runner was caught stealing to spike the possible victory!)
*Shields Over 4.5 +132 (wins with 6, hope you've been noticing this TB ballpark)
*Eaton Under 3.5 +136 (loses with 4...he was extremely sharp for 3 innings, then the wheels fell off. Unfortunately he cracked the threshold during those sharp innings)
*Meche Over 4.5 +178 (wins with 5...I typed -178 yesterday in a typo, it was a big dog at +178. Even though he got rocked, he did manage to get enough K's to clear the hurdle before leaving. Strong K numbers in this park for Meche this year.
"Others" went 3-2....which was 4.1 and 2.62 with the moneylines.
For the night...5-5 on wins and losses, 6.1 and 6.62 on the moneylines. How you handled Santana of LAA determines if you won a little or lost a little. Overs go 4-2...Unders go 1-3...and the situations where 7 game medians and home/road split projections suggest an Over have been really solid this week. Will probaby place more weight on those in the coming days... |