View Single Post
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 07-25-2006, 06:03 PM
blogguy blogguy is offline
MW Writer, S.H. Austin
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 2,635
Default Tuesday Strikeouts July 25

Here are the gradings I get for Tuesday night...

Harmonic Convergences
Ortiz Under 2.5 -111 vs. San Francisco
Snell Over 4.5 -135 at Milwaukee
Santana Over 4.5 -145 at Tampa Bay
Santana Over 6.5 -159 at CWS
Redman Under 2.5 -159 vs. Baltimore

That's more than normal. None grade out to the degree that Bonderman and Lackey did last night. The math was suggesting the line was about 1.5 runs too low in those. Santana of the Angels gets pretty close. He would be might favorite of the five. The other Santana would be second favorite. Snell's got a chance of imploding and getting knocked out early. Going Under 2.5 doesn't leave much margin for error in the other two examples. But...there is a convergence there of key indicators in all five of these games, so I included them in the top group.

Others worth considering
*Sheets Under 5.5 -152 vs. Pittsburgh (first start in a while, no guarantee he'll have his stuff)
*Clemens Over 4.5 -162 vs. Cincy (rounding into form, Reds a high K team)
*Shields Over 4.5 +132 vs. LAA (K's per 6 IP at home for the year are 5.3, so it's odd this is a dog)
*Eaton Under 3.5 +136 vs. NYY (first start, tough park, underdog payoff if he gets knocked out early...no guarantee of K's if he doesn't)
*Meche Over 4.5 -178 vs. Toronto (K's per 6 IP at home for the year is 5.9. This would be a convergence game but Toronto's offense generally does a good job of avoiding strikeouts. They did have 5 in 6 innings against Pineiro last night however.
Reply With Quote