 How to make a baseball line
Thanks for posting the formulas Spraguer. And unsolicited at that!
I remember how I'd felt like I'd discovered uranium or something 20 years ago when I realized that Pythagorean projections could be turned into moneyline equivalents since both can be expressed as winning percentages. An early peak I'm afraid...
Domer, one thing to consider is to just caclulate a "typical" replacement call up starter and plug in the numbers from that. You can always tweak the data if you think the call-up is likely to enter the league with authority (say, a lefthanded strikeout pitcher...the toughest type of pitcher to hit if you've never seen him before)...or if the call-up is just a desparation fill-in (righthander with poor minor league stats and a low strikeout rate).
That should at least get you in the neighborhood. I'm often surprised by how little difference there is between a call-up and the worst guys that are already in rotations. Heck, most call-ups are going to be better than 10-20% of the starters already getting regular work I'd bet.
And...Spraguer would probably point out too that you've got to look at the leveraged bullpens. If teams have lousy relievers, they're extremely likely to get into action when a new guy starts just because new guys typically go 5 innings or less...6 at the most normally. A new guy represents a 7 inning danger spot rather than a 5 inning danger spot on some teams.  |