[Spraguer]

Bloggy, I appreciate the comments.

The ERA debate is a long one. Myself, I think that it is useful for evaluating past performance - but of course that's not the goal in handicapping.

The idea is: past peripherals (K,BB,HR) corellate more strongly with future ERA than does past ERA. It's all about process and results, right? Peripherals are the process, ERA is the result. If you want to know the future result, look to the past process (which is repeatable) rather than the past result (which is enslaved to the process anyhow).

There is information included in ERA that is not included in the scores, but I think that ERA's signal-to-noise ratio is so low that that information would be impossible to discern.

One thing that we can agree on is that K, BB, HR do not tell the whole story. However: much of the remainder of the story is told by context (defence). Batted ball type plays a role too. The scoring system described above rewards groundballers by subtracting points for homeruns, of which the groundballers allow few. By "decontextualizing" a pitcher, and adding in the anticipated context afterward (i.e. team defence), you get [process + context = anticipated result].

At any rate, I really appreciated your comments. You do a wonderful job here in the think tank, Bloggy.

I did a little quick spreadsheeting for the benefit of whomever might actually still be reading this; you can get an idea of what the scale is like and which pitchers are doing well or not so well. Here are the scores to date for 2006, sorted by total score. The numbers are Dominance Score (k/9*21), Command Score (k/bb*21) and Homerun Score (hr/9*30). The last column is the important number, the total Score.

I should note that I don't use the in-season numbers, I use a set of preseason projections that I trust (because pitchers tend to regress to their career means and because the projections are based on a larger sample size).

The numbers are essentially Ron Shandler's BPV, only park-factored for homeruns and without the slight batting average allowed adjustment.

I apologize for the formatting. I've limited the list to pitchers with five or more starts in 2006. The numbers are Dominance Score (k/9*21), Command Score (k/bb*21) and Homerun Score (hr/9*30). The last column is the important number, the total Score.

* = very small sample size warning for <50IP.

Player Team DOM COM HR SCORE
schilling,curt BOS 49.9 162.8 39.5 173.2
santana,johan MIN 56.7 126.9 29.6 154.0
*weaver,jered LAA 48.5 108.0 13.9 142.6
webb,brandon ARZ 41.8 103.2 15.6 129.3
liriano,francis MIN 62.6 87.2 23.4 126.4
*patterson,john WAS 56.4 98.0 31.1 123.3
*burnett,a.j. TOR 52.6 107.6 40.8 119.4
capuano,chris MIL 46.2 91.3 25.6 111.9
mussina,mike NYY 47.6 98.9 34.8 111.7
harang,aaron CIN 51.5 78.4 24.6 105.4
smoltz,john ATL 47.5 84.0 26.3 105.1
bonderman,jerem DET 51.4 71.4 18.7 104.1
martinez,pedro NYM 59.2 83.3 40.9 101.6
peavy,jake SD 59.7 84.7 44.3 100.1
sabathia,c.c. CLE 48.9 80.3 30.8 98.4
baker,scott MIN 46.1 109.7 59.5 96.3
halladay,roy TOR 30.0 87.5 21.8 95.7
bush,dave MIL 45.6 79.7 30.0 95.3
carpenter,chris STL 46.8 75.3 27.0 95.1
oswalt,roy HOU 36.4 74.4 21.9 88.8
penny,brad LAD 41.5 63.0 15.8 88.7
kazmir,scott TB 58.6 59.7 30.0 88.2
vazquez,javier ChW 43.0 64.5 24.1 83.4
*clemens,roger HOU 43.8 57.8 18.6 83.0
haren,danny OAK 41.3 75.8 35.4 81.6
millwood,kevin TEX 36.3 65.5 21.3 80.5
lackey,john LAA 44.4 56.2 21.4 79.2
arroyo,bronson CIN 40.6 65.5 27.5 78.6
hernandez,felix SEA 50.0 63.0 38.0 75.1
schmidt,jason SF 45.0 51.3 24.3 72.0
kim,byung-hyun COL 47.3 48.1 24.1 71.3
maddux,greg ChC 31.4 64.9 25.8 70.4
*eveland,dana MIL 63.5 44.8 38.2 70.1
*harden,rich OAK 52.5 39.7 23.6 68.5
zambrano,carlos ChC 54.0 38.2 24.9 67.3
johnson,randy NYY 46.0 60.1 39.0 67.0
cruz,juan ARZ 48.8 36.8 18.7 66.9
padilla,vicente TEX 44.0 44.4 21.7 66.7
ramirez,elizard CIN 35.3 60.8 29.9 66.2
bedard,erik BAL 43.7 49.4 27.9 65.2
santana,ervin LAA 39.1 48.1 23.2 64.0
johnson,josh FLA 47.9 36.5 22.9 61.5
hamels,cole PHI 53.9 42.0 35.1 60.8
contreras,jose ChW 37.2 48.0 24.6 60.6
escobar,kelvim LAA 40.2 51.8 31.5 60.5
cabrera,daniel BAL 57.0 25.2 22.2 60.1
sele,aaron LAD 32.4 42.0 14.6 59.8
lieber,jon PHI 32.9 65.8 39.1 59.6
myers,brett PHI 45.8 49.2 35.9 59.0
hernandez,orlan NYM 52.8 53.1 47.7 58.2
shields,jamie TB 44.7 41.0 27.7 58.0
jennings,jason COL 39.6 42.9 24.7 57.8
pettitte,andy HOU 43.0 47.6 35.4 55.3
young,chris SD 51.0 57.1 52.9 55.2
lidle,cory PHI 42.1 47.0 34.6 54.5
wright,jaret NYY 32.2 35.8 13.6 54.4
*colon,bartolo LAA 31.9 67.7 45.4 54.2
*lester,jon BOS 48.0 27.7 22.5 53.2
cain,matt SF 47.3 35.0 30.1 52.2
verlander,justi DET 34.6 45.0 27.4 52.2
*miner,zach DET 35.1 42.0 25.3 51.8
meche,gil SEA 44.2 43.4 36.0 51.6
willis,dontrell FLA 33.6 42.5 25.0 51.1
armas,tony WAS 39.2 37.7 26.1 50.8
snell,ian PIT 44.7 41.5 35.6 50.5
olsen,scott FLA 47.7 42.5 40.0 50.3
williams,woody SD 33.4 54.0 37.6 49.8
lilly,ted TOR 48.0 37.7 36.0 49.7
lohse,kyle MIN 40.7 37.6 28.7 49.6
santos,victor PIT 38.3 40.6 29.2 49.6
*gonzalez,enriqu ARZ 33.6 42.0 26.3 49.3
nolasco,ricky FLA 37.6 55.0 44.9 47.7
byrd,paul CLE 30.2 50.4 33.5 47.1
buchholz,taylor HOU 37.9 51.4 42.2 47.1
glavine,tom NYM 37.0 45.8 35.8 47.0
morris,matt SF 32.1 38.8 24.1 46.8
zito,barry OAK 39.2 32.7 25.2 46.6
*marmol,carlos ChC 46.8 30.1 30.6 46.3
hudson,tim ATL 34.5 37.3 25.6 46.2
*duckworth,brand KC 34.6 30.0 19.5 45.1
francis,jeff COL 35.0 32.7 22.6 45.1
*reyes,anthony STL 41.9 50.1 47.3 44.7
park,chan_ho SD 38.3 47.3 41.1 44.5
janssen,casey TOR 25.7 48.2 30.0 43.9
robertson,nate DET 36.6 40.0 33.0 43.6
westbrook,jake CLE 28.5 42.7 27.7 43.6
lowe,derek LAD 28.2 34.7 20.2 42.6
wakefield,tim BOS 36.2 39.1 32.7 42.6
cook,aaron COL 22.4 37.1 17.1 42.3
vargas,claudio ARZ 38.5 45.5 41.7 42.3
perez,odalis LAD 30.8 51.7 41.0 41.5
milton,eric CIN 32.6 54.6 46.7 40.5
lee,cliff CLE 36.6 48.2 44.3 40.5
rogers,kenny DET 31.1 51.0 42.0 40.1
davis,doug MIL 38.8 27.6 26.7 39.7
*loewen,adam BAL 46.2 23.3 30.8 38.7
blanton,joe OAK 28.8 34.8 25.7 38.0
*mitre,sergio FLA 43.2 45.2 50.7 37.7
claussen,brando CIN 40.0 42.8 45.7 37.0
marshall,sean ChC 35.5 29.7 28.2 36.9
tomko,brett LAD 30.9 49.4 43.5 36.7
batista,miguel ARZ 30.7 33.8 28.4 36.1
weaver,jeff STL 36.9 57.5 58.6 35.9
duke,zach PIT 31.0 30.6 26.0 35.6
moyer,jamie SEA 28.9 46.1 39.5 35.5
*taubenheim,ty TOR 40.1 30.3 35.1 35.4
*hill,shawn WAS 23.9 28.0 17.3 34.6
hendrickson,mar LAD 30.3 32.3 28.6 33.9
radke,brad MIN 28.9 48.5 43.8 33.6
garcia,freddy ChW 31.0 50.0 47.6 33.4
rheinecker,john TEX 20.3 33.9 22.1 32.1
washburn,jarrod SEA 28.3 40.7 37.7 31.3
rodriguez,wandy HOU 33.4 27.5 29.7 31.1
maholm,paul PIT 35.4 27.6 32.0 31.1
wang,chien-ming NYY 17.5 27.4 13.8 31.0
ramirez,horacio ATL 23.5 26.5 19.4 30.6
*ohka,tomo MIL 30.2 30.7 30.6 30.3
o'connor,michae WAS 36.0 30.9 37.5 29.4
fogg,josh COL 25.4 29.2 25.3 29.3
buehrle,mark ChW 23.6 38.5 33.0 29.1
beckett,josh BOS 45.0 49.9 65.9 28.9
nieve,fernando HOU 36.5 45.7 54.4 27.8
*day,zach WAS 26.8 24.8 23.9 27.7
koronka,john TEX 25.5 31.5 29.7 27.2
garland,jon ChW 26.8 45.4 45.3 26.8
halsey,brad OAK 31.0 28.2 32.4 26.8
lopez,rodrigo BAL 32.7 41.4 48.4 25.7
silva,carlos MIN 22.5 60.0 56.8 25.7
hensley,clay SD 29.3 29.4 33.4 25.4
clement,matt BOS 35.7 23.8 34.2 25.2
madson,ryan PHI 35.5 33.6 44.3 24.8
loe,kameron TEX 23.5 32.5 31.7 24.3
wright,jamey SF 26.5 26.4 29.2 23.7
*jackson,zach MIL 31.2 33.0 40.9 23.2
*bannister,brian NYM 27.0 17.3 21.1 23.2
thomson,john ATL 30.7 29.5 37.2 23.1
ponson,sidney STL 26.1 23.9 27.7 22.3
ortiz,ramon WAS 27.7 34.6 40.2 22.2
*davies,kyle ATL 46.1 44.5 69.7 20.8
waechter,doug TB 25.5 27.6 32.7 20.5
suppan,jeff STL 29.1 28.2 37.0 20.2
perez,oliver PIT 43.3 25.1 49.3 19.1
*bonser,boof MIN 41.4 47.3 69.7 18.9
thompson,mike SD 24.9 29.6 36.0 18.5
johnson,jason BOS 23.5 27.8 32.8 18.5
benson,kris BAL 25.4 28.5 35.6 18.3
*bautista,denny KC 33.9 27.2 43.4 17.7
seo,jae TB 35.4 35.2 53.0 17.5
rusch,glendon ChC 51.0 42.0 76.1 16.9
hennessey,brad SF 22.9 21.8 28.6 16.2
hernandez,livan WAS 31.3 30.2 47.2 14.2
*dinardo,lenny BOS 32.3 26.3 44.4 14.1
*ortiz,russ BAL 38.8 17.3 42.2 13.9
*billingsley,cha LAD 30.3 14.5 31.8 13.0
trachsel,steve NYM 24.9 21.5 34.8 11.6
mulder,mark STL 29.4 36.0 55.1 10.3
moehler,brian FLA 25.2 27.0 42.1 10.0
pineiro,joel SEA 24.5 27.2 42.1 9.6
sosa,jorge ATL 34.9 37.3 62.9 9.3
lowry,noah SF 23.5 25.5 41.1 7.9
fossum,casey TB 26.7 23.5 42.5 7.7
*wells,kip PIT 25.6 19.3 37.3 7.6
marquis,jason STL 25.2 27.7 45.7 7.2
maroth,mike DET 24.8 30.8 48.7 6.9
chacon,shawn NYY 30.5 20.3 44.4 6.4
*keppel,bobby KC 31.7 28.0 53.4 6.2
*soler,alay NYM 27.6 23.0 46.0 4.6
wood,mike KC 24.4 25.6 49.0 1.0
redman,mark KC 19.9 19.2 38.4 0.7
mcclung,seth TB 25.6 17.0 43.2 -0.6
*vargas,jason FLA 33.1 18.7 52.9 -1.1
loaiza,esteban OAK 25.7 22.6 49.7 -1.5
*zambrano,victor NYM 38.4 28.6 70.1 -3.0
towers,josh TOR 28.9 40.6 72.7 -3.1
*tejeda,robinson TEX 42.4 18.5 64.8 -3.9
*mays,joe CIN 27.6 21.9 53.5 -4.0
affeldt,jeremy KC 22.4 13.8 42.0 -5.8
chacin,gustavo TOR 29.6 25.6 62.5 -7.3
floyd,gavin PHI 33.9 22.3 65.1 -8.8
chen,bruce BAL 37.3 39.5 87.2 -10.5
*williams,dave CIN 21.6 21.0 56.6 -14.0
saarloos,kirk OAK 19.6 16.3 50.0 -14.1
elarton,scott KC 23.2 19.8 69.2 -26.2
*hernandez,runel KC 21.8 24.8 84.9 -38.3