[blogguy]

Thanks Spraguer!

I greatly appreciate you going into so much depth. You laid it out very clearly in a way that numbers people can understand, and apply to their own methodology...and in a way that will give non-numbers people a sense of how much work goes into serious handicapping. I know a lot of people just play hunches on things and hope for the best, or read the newspaper and hope the matchup numbers hold up.

This shows a better way...a way that allowed a handicapper to get to plus 20 units in a MW contest in record time!

My only quibbles would be:
*I'm still a fan of ERA, so I'm not going to ignore it. I agree that you've got to make adjustments for context...and that extreme numbers can send you off in the wrong direction. For me...I mostly use ERA to help build a profile of a player. Looking over long term numbers, and peripherals...you can get a sense of:

Cy Young caliber
Ace caliber
2-3 in the rotation caliber
Innings Muncher
Cross your fingers and hope

ERA over big enough samples lines up very strongly with those categories, so I'm okay with using it in that light. I'm guessing the 3 outcomes material does as well...so anyone already using those probably doesn't need ERA to supplement.

I have to admit though that my concern with the 3 outcomes approach is that it tends to think of things as random that aren't necessarily random. I think you can tell when a pitcher starts to lose his effectiveness when balls start rocketing around the interior of the ballpark. It doesn't have to be home runs...it can be line shot singles or gappers to the wall. These tell a story but aren't part of the 3 outcomes. Also, I think some pitchers (particularly young ones) are prone to struggle with runners on base. So, negative things can cluster for them in a way that doesn't show up in the 3 outcomes. This stuff DOES show up in ERA, so, personally, I'm for keeping ERA in the arsenal.

The benefits of the 3 outcomes approach are becoming more clear every day in the sabermetric and handicapping worlds. So, I'm not voting for ERA over the 3 outcomes...just suggesting it might be worthy of keeping in the mix. I think everyone reading this should strongly consider placing more weight on the 3 outcomes when they evaluate pitchers. Since I've started playing around with K props...I'm paying more attention to it than ever.

*My goal at the beginning of the thread was to gather things that are easy to find and post every day in a matchup format for readers here. I'm not sure if this really qualifies. You can find the raw materials to 'build the house" pretty easily. And, if you're a whiz with a spreadsheet...then all the stuff is handy. But it's not like any of us can go to a website that has K/6IP or BB/6IP for all the pitchers. I've been cheating and using Don Bests "averages" per start for everyone. That gets me in the ballpark...and saves a bunch of wear and tear for trying to gather everything up.

In a sense...I was hoping we could build a jalopy that would get us from point A to point B...and you're showing us a Formula I race car that may have a bit too much horsepower for many drivers to handle comfortably. If there was a site that posted those "total scores" that you mentioned...that would be a dream come true. I think we all would understand that those numbers were extremely meaningful because they represented very important data...and the differences between pitchers would resonate in a way we could all digest. Trying to swallow the 2.3, 5.9, 1.2 stuff before multiplying it by 6, 21, and 30 doesn't go down quite so easy.

Granting...that it's a meal designed by an expert and jampacked with vitamins and nutrients!

In sum....

Gentle readers...Spraguer has outlined a roadmap to success that you can follow with a bit of research and comfort with spreadsheets (or math by hand). To date, it is the best thought out and most comprehensive approach to handicapping pitchers I've ever seen. I strongly encourage you to apply whatever you can from his approach to yours.

In the meantime...I'll be seeing what I can do to the engine of my jalopy...

Thanks again Spraguer for sharing this in such depth with us!