 Monday Strikeouts
Kim Over 4.5 -133 (wins with 9...note that he threw 127 pitches!)
Hamels Over 5.5 +150 (wins with 6)
Schmidt Over 6.5 -119 (loses with 5, all in first 4 innings)
Lilly Over 5.5 +132 (loses with 2, very low for him)
Baker Over 4.5 +145 (wins with 6)
The two I liked best split out for a profit with +145 on Baker but -119 on Schmidt. The fivesome went 3-2...hitting two of the dogs. The moneyline record on the 3-2 was 3.95 and 2.19.
Though the two dogs happened to hit with this analysis, overall the pricey favorites had an incredible night. Again, this is a prop that mostly sharps play, so prices represent sharp action rather than the "public" loading up on something for goofy reasons.
Favorites of 150 or more went 15-4. Yes...19 of the props had favorites of 150 or more....and they won more than 70% of the time (making me feel fortunate to have been on two of the four where the big dog got there). This is a continuation of everything I've seen this weekend. Adjusting for the moneylines, the record moves to 15 and 6.73...still way in the black.
If you're not familiar with the K props...all of them end with a "half" to negate the possibility of pushes. This leads to the oddsmakers putting high prices when the pitchers are "between clubs" so to speak. If a true number really should be 5...then it's either an expensive Over at 4.5, or an expensive Under at 5.5. What I've seen so far suggests the oddsmakers can't make it expensive enough.
Just a handful of people read this on game day...so there doesn't seem to be much interest. I think the possibilities here are very strong for now. So, I'll be pursuing them in private. If you'd like to exchange ideas on K props, send me a PM about it. Maybe we can set up an email/PM network of people who are into this prop. Basic fundamental stat handicapping seems to have clear applications for both Overs and Unders (a lot of non-strikeout pitchers are posting just 1 or 2 against teams who don't strikeout much...but the lines are never that low)...and many sharps are already doing a lot in this field.
If it's not your cup of tea...you might want to rethink your beverage list...  |