[blogguy]

Since I started logging "average K's per game" for the pitchers, I figured I'd look at strikeout props today. Here are pitchers with at least 4.5 K's per game who are matched up against offenses that have been at least average in being strike out prone...or who are definitely strike out prone:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Zambrano: 6.5 K's per game...Mets have 609 K's, which isn't horrible but at least suggests they can be K'd by good pitchers. Pinny has Over 5.5 at -168.

Florida Johnson: 5.3 K's per game...Astros aren't that bad at K's. But, the Pinny Over 5.5 is a dog at +124. Johnson's been pitching well, it's a pitcher's park, and he may go 6.5 to 7 innings.

Cincinnati Arroyo: 5.1 K's per game...Rockies aren't that strikeout prone...but over 5.5 is a +162 underdog. Arroyo's been great at home this year, and is averaging 7.1 IP per start on a 2.52 ERA in Cincy.

Pittsburgh Snell: 4.5 K's per game...Washington is like the Mets in strikeouts...over 4.5 was -143 at Pinny last I looked. Snell seems to have settled his ship after a shaky start to the season.

Milwaukee Capuano: 5.8 K's
Arizona Webb: 5.4 K's vs. the worst K offense in the majors (702 fans for the Brewers).

Capuano Over 4.5 is -112
Webb Over 5.5 is -143. This one's really the first harmonic convergence so far...where a good strikeout pitcher is matched up against a horrible strikeout offense.

Atlanta Smoltz: 5.7 K's vs. 620 K's for San Diego in a great pitcher's park. Smoltz Over 5.5 is -125. This one makes some good sense too.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota Santana: 7.2 K's per game...and Cleveland is second worst in the AL at striking out. Pinny has Over 6.5 at -163..suggesting the sharps were on this one too.

Los Angeles Santana: 4.5 K's per game...with Tampa Bay being third worst in the AL at strikout out. Pinny has Over 4.5 at -143...again looking like sharps are playing this one given that price.

There are probably a few others in there that could be considered. Trying not to make this a novel. Pettitte has K potential if he ever gets his act together...and Florida is second worst in the NL at strikeouts. But...the juice was something like 180 on the over for Pettite....probably taking value away.

I guess my favorites would be:
Santana of Minnesota
Webb of Arizona
Smotlz of Atlanta
Santana of Anaheim

My first day playing around seriously with this...and I might be "squaring out" because I'm betting favorites. I really don't think this is a prop that squares play much though...so high juice might be a signal to pay attention to something. We'll keep playing around and learning.

Thanks Stevo for adding your thoughts. Feel free to post whatever you'd like in the TANK!

blg...