[blogguy]

Thanks Sooner and Capperks. Obviously the element of pitching inspires a zillion possible directions. I guess I had more simple things in mind at first. We've got to walk before we can run. Looking at the several great ideas in Sooner's post and the key key point from Capperks about bullpens would be steps down the road I think. But...very important steps needless to say.

For this early foray, I was thinking more along the lines of basic stats about the starting pitchers. Sorry I didn't make that clearer. After running through the sites I mentioned to see what was out there in the matchup postings on the web, I came up with this as a beginning list:

*ERA and IP per start overall (the two basic fundamentals that describe the effectiveness and impact of each starting pitcher)

*ERA and IP per start in terms of the home/road split (road numbers for the road guy...home numbers for the home guy), so we can make sure to account for pitchers who are either helped or hurt by their home parks.

*Strikeouts. First I started out with K's per 9 innings because we were using that in an earlier thread about pitchers. But...it's something that you have to calculate yourself as best I could tell. Don Best had easy to compute numbers for the first two categories I listed...and they have "average strikeouts" per start already listed. This serves our purpose quickly enough...and should be helpful for those of you playing "props" on total strikeouts for a starting pitcher. I've read that some of you look at that. This number will tell you right away what the normal expectations are for each starter.

WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched): There were several variations of this out there. I kind of like the 9 inning one better because things jam up in per inning stuff (1.1 is great...1.8 is lousy...but 7 tenths of something doesn't seem like much when you're just glancing). Don Best has this handy though...so me or volunteers putting together the stuff each day could just grab that number instead of hopping around.

GB/Flyball data: You know I like this particular stat because it gives you a sense of how the guy might pitch in that night's conditions. If you follow ballparks and weather, then this is a big deal. Earlier we were using the overall percentage as projected by Baseball Prospectus. I saw that covers.com has just the pure ratios in relatively easy to find form (with their pitching matchups)...so I went with those.

There are other things we can include as well obviously. For now...here's an approximation of what I'd have in mind as a starting point. We could then embellish this with information Sooner talked about regarding pitch counts and injuries (those play a huge role in foreshadowing "non-normal" performances...and the matchup formats would largely represent "normal")...as well as notes about the bullpen. We've had several discussions about bullpens in the past. I prefer the quick and simple bullpen ERA's as posted at covers.com. Spraguer has put together very complicated but much more accurate "leveraged" bullpen data that he's discussed. Might be hard to find an easy to use consensus. Personally, I'm going to go back to using that 1-point, 2-point, 3-point format from that experimental methodology we were using a few weeks ago. We can talk about that down the road. Take a gander at these and see what information you think should be added:


KANSAS CITY: DUCKWORTH
5.33 ERA and 5.4 IP in all starts
4.50 ERA and 5.3 IP on the road
3.4 strikeouts per game (low)
1.8 WHIP (poor)
1.07 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Nutshell: Struggling, very little going for him...but not the worst guy in the majors.

DETROIT: BONDERMAN
3.46 ERA and 6.6 IP in all starts (ace stats)
4.53 ERA and 6.4 IP at home (surprising home troubles)
6.1 strikeouts per game (strong)
1.1 WHIP (second best to Liriano on tonight's card)
1.74 GB/FB ratio (ground ball)
Nutshell: The numbers of a staff ace except for the home ERA. That's a big surprise because that park shouldn't hurt him. Maybe the infield is messed up or something, lol.

OAKLAND: LOAIZA
6.43 ERA and 5.6 IP in all starts
7.05 ERA and 5.6 IP on the road
2.5 strikeouts per game (a joke number in a joke season)
1.6 WHIP
0.93 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Nutshell: A disastrous season, and the A's are just hoping he'll find his old form somewhere. He's basically been Jose Lima without the anti-hype.

BOSTON: LESTER
3.06 ERA and 5.3 IP in all starts
3.50 ERA and 5.5 IP at home
5.0 strikeouts per game (strong for a rookie)
1.5 WHIP (stunningly horrible for a good ERA)
1.03 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Nutshell: Volatile stats in an unsustainable combination. He's putting on baserunners left and right...and apparently stranding ALL of them! If you throw out ERA, he's basically a left version of Baltimore's Cabrera. You know how wild that guy's been. Either the baserunners will go down...or the ERA will go up. No way this set of numbers could possibly hold up. He's pitched with GREAT luck so far...but his strikeout numbers are terrific. Gotta tame his stuff.

TEXAS: PADILLA
4.44 ERA and 6.0 IP in all starts
5.49 ERA and 5.8 IP on the road (surprising)
5.0 strikeouts per game (very good)
1.3 WHIP
1.06 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Nutshell: Usually Texas kills an ERA, so it's weird to see the big home/road split the other way here. Maybe he likes the heat. Some Hispanics are more comfortable in the heat because they grew up in it. Very strong SO/WHIP combo.

BALTIMORE: CABRERA
5.15 ERA and 5.4 IP in all starts
6.35 ERA and 4.9 IP at home (not major league caliber)
5.8 strikeouts per game (only saving grace)
1.7 WHIP
1.03 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Nutshell: Wild thing that makes opponent's heart's sing thus far. He's Lester and Loaiza in a blender.

CLEVELAND: LEE
4.76 ERA and 6.1 IP in all starts
4.63 ERA and 6.2 IP on the road (innings muncher)
4.0 strikeouts per game
1.4 WHIP
0.48 GB/FB ratio (extreme fly ball)
Nutshell: Generic journeyman kind of numbers. Can work well with a strong offensive team, which Cleveland does have. The kind of guy who works as a 4-5 starter for a top team...but not an ace.

MINNESOTA: LIRIANO
1.83 ERA and 6.6 IP in all starts
0.67 ERA and 6.7 IP at home
7.0 strikeouts per game (huge numbers...Cy Young stuff)
0.8 WHIP
2.20 GB/FB ratio (extreme ground ball---kind a lefty Halladay numerically)
Nutshell: Only fear is overwork ruining his arm. Twins are watching that carefully. One of the guys where the numbers tell the story better than words do. Players and managers have had trouble coming up with superlatives. A stat profile likes this helps you see the depth and magnitude of what the guy's doing. Clevfan and others noted up in the Mess Hall that Liriano was down in the Dominican when he got called up at the last second for the All-Star game. He might not be in position to have a peak outing tonight because of his crazy week.

HOUSTON: OSWALT
3.15 ERA and 7.0 IP in all starts
3.10 ERA and 6.5 IP on the road
4.5 strikeouts per game (not quite overpowering)
1.2 WHIP
1.68 GB/FB ratio (ground ball)
Nutshell: He's not Roger Clemens...but he basically gets the same results in his own unique way. Ace stats.

FLORIDA: WILLIS
4.01 ERA and 6.9 IP in all starts
7.18 ERA and 5.7 IP at home (horrible at home, great on road)
4.2 strikeouts per game
1.4 WHIP
1.45 GB/FB ratio (ground ball)
Nutshell: This guy has a history of fast starts and poor finishes. Something to think about in the coming weeks. Horrible troubles at home this year...but solid as a rock on the road.

COLORADO: FRANCIS
4.04 ERA and 6.0 IP in all starts
4.40 ERA and 6.1 IP on the road
3.8 strikeouts per game
1.2 WHIP (stingy considering ERA)
0.91 GB/FB ratio (fly ball, not one of Colorado's groundies)
Nutshell: A lot like Lee of Cleveland...fewer baserunners though.

CINCINNATI: MILTON
5.24 ERA and 6.2 IP in all starts
5.63 ERA and 6.1 IP at home
3.6 strikeouts per game
1.3 WHIP
0.52 GB/FB ratio (extreme fly ball, 15 HR's allowed this year)
Nutshell: Gopher city...don't back him in high HR environments

LOS ANGELES: BILLINGSLEY
5.27 ERA and 5.5 IP in all starts
5.29 ERA and 5.6 IP on the road
2.8 strikeouts per game
1.8 WHIP (an awful combo...no strikeouts and a lot of baserunners)
1.95 GB/FB ratio (extreme ground ball)
Nutshell: Unimpressive start for the rookie. All he does so far is get ground balls.

ST. LOUIS: MARQUIS
5.55 ERA and 6.5 IP in all starts
5.38 ERA and 6.3 IP on the road (surprisingly good IP numbers)
3.0 strikeouts per game
1.3 WHIP (everyone who gets on scores!)
1.03 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)
Nutshell: A step backward from previous years. Another guy like Lee and Francis...similar WHIP and fly ball data...but his strikeouts are much lower. That's what's leading to the higher ERA. The additional balls in play are getting hit hard and doing some damage. WHIP doesn't account for power...so Marquis looks to be giving up some him impact shots.


I said something in that thread to BostonGambler about the Red Sox pitcher tonight. Look at how similar he is to the wild Cabrera in some key stats:

Lester:
5.3 IP in all starts
5.0 strikeouts per game
1.5 WHIP
1.03 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)

Cabrera
5.4 IP in all starts
5.8 strikeouts per game
1.7 WHIP
1.03 GB/FB ratio (fly ball)

Cabrera gets more strikeouts, but puts more guys on base. But...when you look at a big sample of all starters, these guys are pretty close to being clones in the areas listed. Amazing that Lester's got an ERA of 3.06, while Cabrera is at 5.15. Be careful with Lester...he's been playing with fire according to these numbers.

Anyway...please share your thoughts on this kind of format...and on what other numbers might conveniently go into the mix. Then we can work on finding some volunteers to help put together the stuff each day. If I had to do all 15 games every day...I'd run out of gas pretty soon, and there'd be no mental energy left to actually THINK about anything...lol. IF four of us are doing 4 games a day...that's manageable. Then maybe Sooner can keep everyone updated on pitch counts...and Capperks and others can add in the bullpen element.

Thanks again to those who responded so quickly. Hope to hear from more of you as you work your way back into the baseball season and back into the THINK TANK!

blg...