 RE:******DAILY PICKS THREAD 3/22******
Dallas @ Philadelphia
Dallas -8.5/-8/-7/-6.5/-6/-5.5 (Canbet)
Total 195 to 194.5
Dallas 44-25 Overall and 14-20 Away
Philadelphia 28-42 Overall and 17-16 At Home
DAL is 10-24 ATS in their last 34 on the road.
Over is 7-3 in DAL's last 10 overall.
Mavs rank 1st in off avg. 104 pts/gm.
PHI is 4-1 ATS in their last five at home.
PHI is 1-3 ATS in their last four overall.
Under is 10-4 in PHI's last 14 overall.
Home/Away:
Dallas [-2.6 margin] 100.2 points on 43.2 FG%
Philadelphia [+0.5 margin] 88.2 points on 43.4 FG%
Last 5:
Dallas [+10.8 margin] 109.0 points on 48.5 FG%
Philadelphia [-14.0 margin] 79.2 points on 39.9 FG%
Dallas won first meeting 125-122 At Dallas...went Over.
Total was 214 at the end of regulation. Game went into 2OT.
Day's Of Rest:
Dallas 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS and 8-8 Over/Under (202.3 Average Total)
Philadelphia (1) 15-18 SU, 18-15 ATS and 19-12 Under (178.8 Average Total)
Dallas on 4-1 SU run but 5-5 SU their last 10.
Philadelphia has lost 4 SU in a row and are on a 5-10 SU run.
Philadelphia has averaged 74.2 points the last 4.
Philadephia has shot 39.9 % the last 5.
Philadelphia has averaged 86.1 points during March.
Dallas is averaging 109.0 points on 48.5 FG% their last 5.
Dallas has scored +100 or more 7 Straight and 12 of 14.
Dallas has averaged 104.7 for March.
Dallas ins't that good a road team (14-20) Yesterday, they also went off
as large Road favorites. The Mavericks shot very poorly the first half.
Had thought that Dallas would have outpaced NJ without Kidd and Martin.
However, Nets field a good veteran line up that practically won the game.
Today, the 76'ers also field a verteran lineup.
Big difference in how each team has been playing:
Dallas comes in with a +10.8 margin and shooting 48.5 FG%
Philadelphia comes in with -14.0 margin on 39.9 FG%
Dallas has averaged 104.7 for Philadelphia.
Philadelphia has averaged 86.1 for March and 74.2 the last 4.
Dallas has not been a good Road Favorite 7-15 ATS.
The team which shoots the better FG% tends to cover.
Hard to see Philadelphia shooting better.
Liked at -5.5 and -6, don't at -7 and -8.
Passing on Side.
Would lean towards the Under, but passing.
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Chicago @ Indiana
Indiana -12.5 to -12
Total 176 to 175.5
Chicago 20-49 Overall and 7-27 Away
Indiana 50-19 Overall and 26-7 At Home
Johathon Bender Questionable for Indiana
CHI is 3-1 ATS in their last four overall.
Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road.
CHI ranks 27th in off avg. 88.8 pts/gm.
IND is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall.
IND ranks 3rd in def avg. 85.7 pts/gm.
Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Home/Away:
Chicago [-8.6 margin] 89.6 points on 42.6 FG%
Indiana [+7.4 margin] 89.7 points on 42.5 FG%
Last 5:
Chicago [-6.4 margin] 85.4 points on 41.4 FG%
Indiana [+3.6 margin] 94.0 poings on 48.3 FG%
Teams have Split this season:
Indiana 103-84 At Chicago......went Over
Chicago 86-75 At Chicago.......went Under
Day's Of Rest:
Chicago (1) 9-23 SU, 12-20 ATS and 16-16 Over/Under (185.8 Average Total)
Indiana (1) 20-8 SU, 17-10-1 ATS and 14-14 Over/Under (177.2 Average Total)
Chicago has won back-to-back but is on a 4-11 SU run.
Indiana on 1-3 SU run but 7-3 SU their last 10.
Not sure I like the -12 here, but again the team which shoots the better FG%
tends to cover. Over the last 5, Chicago 41.4 FG% compared to Indiana's 46.8 FG%
Passing on Side and Total.
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Atlanta @ New York
OFF THE BOARD
Atlanta 22-48 Overall and 8-28 Away
New York 32-38 Overall and 19-16 At Home
Chris Crawford Ouestionable for Atlanta
Tim Thomas Out for New York.
Allan Houston Out for New York.
ATL is 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall.
ATL is 1-3 ATS in their last four on the road.
Hawks rank 21st in def avg. 96.5 pts/gm.
Under is 5-1 in NY's last six at home.
Knicks is 11th in offense avg. 91.7 pts/gm.
Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Home/Away:
Atlanta [-11.1 margin] 87.6 points on 42.3 FG%
New York [+0.3 margin] 93.0 points on 44.4 FG%
Last 5:
Atlanta [-8.0 margin] 94.0 points on 41.1 FG%
New York [+2.0 margin] 94.2 points on 41.7 FG%
New York has won both meetings:
New York 96-94 At Atlanta.......went Over
New York 103-92 At New York.....went Over
Day's Of Rest:
Atlanta (1) 10-20 SU, 14-16 ATS and 17-13 Over (192.9 Average Total)
New York (1) 16-19 SU, 17-18 ATS and 19-15 Over (188.9 Average Total)
Atlanta on 1-9 SU run Away.
Atlanta on 4-13 SU run.
New York on 3-1 SU run and 6-3 SU their last 10.
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Los Angeles Clippers @ Denver
Denver -10.5
Total 200.....odds at Pinnacle
Los Angeles Clippers 27-43 Overall and 9-26 Away
Denver 36-35 Overall and 23-12 At Home
Corey Maggette Doubtful for Los Angeles
Quentin Richardson Questionable for Los Angeles
LAC is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
LAC is 3-1 ATS in their last four overall.
Clips are 6th in offense avg. 95.8 pts/gm.
DEN is 0-3 ATS in their last three overall.
DEN is 1-3 ATS in their last four at home.
Nuggs rank 5th in off avg. 96.9 pts/gm.
Home/Away:
Los Angeles Clippers [-6.5 margin] 93.7 points on 42.2 FG%
Denver [+6.1 margin] 99.3 points on 44.9 FG%
Last 5:
Los Angeles [-4.1 margin] 97.2 points on 41.4 FG%
Denver [-2.2 margin] 94.2 points on 42.9 FG%
Los Angeles Leads Season Series 2-1:
Los Angeles 120-104 At Los Angeles....went Over
Denver 98-86 At Denver................went Under
Los Angeles 104-102 At Denver.........went Over
Day's Of Rest:
Los Angeles 8-10 SU, 10-7-1 ATS and 10-8 Under (196.4 Average Total)
Denver 9-11 SU, 8-12 ATS and 11-9 Under (192.7 Average Total)
Los Angeles on 1-7 SU run and are 5-18 SU their last 23.
Denver has lost 3 SU in a row and are 4-12 SU their last 16.
Passing Side and Total.
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Houston @ Portland
Portland -7
Total 170
Houston 39-29 Overall and 14-18 Away
Portland 35-34 Ovearll and 22-12 At Home
Steve Francis Possible Suspension
Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
Over is 6-2-1 in HOU's last nine overall.
HOU ranks 26th in off avg. 88.9 pts/gm.
POR is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 overall.
POR is 4-0 ATS in their last four at home.
Blazers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Home/Away:
Houston [-0.6 margin] 87.2 points on 42.5 FG%
Portland [+2.6 margin] 93.7 points on 46.3 FG%
Last 5:
Houston [+1.2 margin] 92.2 points on 44.0 FG%
Portland [+4.4 margin] 87.5 points on 44.8 FG%
Houston leads Season Series 2-1:
Houston 89-85 At Houston...went Over
Houston 93-91 At Houston....went Over
Portand 85-78 At Portland...went Under
Day's Of Rest:
Houston (0) 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS and 7-7 Over/Under (178.5 Average Total)
Portland (1) 20-19 SU, 10-19 ATS and 22-16 Under (182.3 Average Total)
Houston has lost 3 SU in a row after winning 5 Su in a row.
Houston 5-5 SU their last 10.
Portland on 6-2 SU run and are 6-2 run.
There's a good chance that Steve Francis will be out for Houston.
He cursed on TV yesterday. Shaq cursed and he was suspended.
The NBA generally isn't going to tolerate any infractions on this nature.
That would be great news for Portland. Blazers have 2 games apiece against
the Spurs and Lakers down the Road and need to get as much cushion as possible.
They have little margin for error. Each game and play requires their best efforts.
Play hard, play smart. Work together to get good % shots. Bang it inside
and get to the line, kick it back out. Lots of screens and ball movement.
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Houston played Sacramento tough. Yao Ming fouled out.
Blazers may be able to go after Yao Ming and try to get him into foul trouble.
If Steve Francis does play, then would be very leary of the -7.
Then would expect a very close and competitive game.
The total too low for comfort.
Passing on Side and Total.
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best of luck today,
baz
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