 RE:******DAILY PICKS THREAD 3/21******
Dallas @ New Jersey
Dallas -6.5 to -6
Total 189.5 to 189
Dallas 43-25 Overall and 13-20 Away
New Jersey 41-27 Overall and 24-10 At Home
Kenyon Martin Day-to-Day for New Jersey
Jason Kidd Out for New Jersey.
DAL is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
DAL is 10-23 ATS in their last 33 away.
Mavs rank 1st in off avg. 104 pts/gm.
NJ is 4-9-1 in their last 15 overall.
NJ is 2-5 ATS in their last seven away.
Under is 4-1 in NJ's last five overall.
Home/Away:
Dallas [-2.8 margin] 100.2 points on 43.0 FG%
New Jersey [+6.4 margin] 91.6 points on 44.7 FG%
Last 5:
Dallas [+6.6 margin] 109.2 points on 46.5 FG%
New Jersey [-2.4 margin] 82.6 points on 43.4 FG%
Dallas won first game 106-93 At Dallas....went Over
Day's Of Rest:
Dallas 19-12 SU, 12-19 ATS and 18-14 Under (204.6 Average Total)
New Jersey 23-10 SU, 20-11-2 ATS and 18-14 Under (175.5 Average Total)
Dallas has won the last 7 meetings SU and ATS.
Dallas on 3-1 SU run and 5-5 SU their last 10.
New Jersey has lost back-to-back and are 5-5 SU their last 10.
Think it's going to be hard for the Nets to keep up with Dallas
without Kidd and Martin. They scored 65 their last time out.
That's not going to cut it against Dallas.
Lean towards the Under 189.5
Dallas -6 ...counting on Martin being out. Would pass if he plays.
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Golden State @ Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers -4
Total 193.5 to 193
Golden State 28-40 Overall and 7-27 Away
Los Angeles Clippers 27-42 Overall and 18-16 At Home
GS is 3-0 ATS in their last three overall.
GS is 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road.
Under is 9-3-1 in GS's last 13 overall.
LAC is 3-0 ATS in their last three overall.
LAC is 2-6 ATS in their last eight at home.
Clips rank 6th in rbs avg. 96 pts/gm.
Home/Away:
Golden State [-7.3 margin] 89.2 points on 43.0 FG%
Los Angeles [+0.6 margin] 98.4 points on 44.0 FG%
Last 5:
Golden State [+1.0 margin] 91.0 points on 45.5 FG%
Los Angeles [-3.8 margin] 98.0 points on 41.6 FG%
Los Angeles leads Season Series 2-0:
Los Angelse 106-102 At Los Angeles...went Over
Los Angeles 104-98 At Golden State...went Over
Series trend has been Over.
Day's Of Rest:
Golden State (1) 12-20 Su, 15-16-1 ATS and 16-14 Under (186.9 Average Total)
Los Angeles (1) 14-21 SU, 17-18 ATS and 17-17 Over/Under (192.3 Average Total)
Golden State has won 3 Su in a row after being on a 1-8 SU run.
Los Angeles 1-6 SU their last 10.
Have to lean towards Clippers to Season Series results and
Golden State's Road record (7-27).
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Denver @ Minnesota
Minnesota -8.5
Total 192.5 to 192
Denver 36-34 Overall and 13-22 Away
Minnesota 47-22 Overall and 25-11 At Home
Troy Hudson Doubtful for Sunday.
Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
Over is 5-1-1 in DEN's last seven overall.
Nuggs rank 5th in off avg. 97.2 pts/gm.
MIN 1-3 ATS in their last four at home.
Under is 4-1 in MIN's last five overall.
MIN is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Home/Away:
Denver [-3.9 margin] 95.0 points on 44.0 FG%
Minnesota [+7.4 margin] 96.0 points on 47.4 FG%
Last 5:
Denver [+1.8 margin] 98.2 points on 45.7 FG%
Minnesota [-3.8 margin] 87.4 points on 42.5 FG%
Minnesota leads Season Series 2-0:
Minnesota 97-95 At Denver......went Under
Minnesota 89-76 At Minnesota...went Under
Minnesota has won the last 7 meetings.
Day's Of Rest:
Denver (1) 16-16 SU, 18-14 ATS and 17-13 Over (195.8 Average Total)
Minnesota 23-11 SU, 16-18 ATS and 19-15 Over (188.0 Average Total)
Denver has lost back to back and are 4-6 SU their last 10.
Minnesota is on a 4-6 run.
Not comfortable laying -8.5 with Minnesota in their current form against
a team which feels that it has to win.
Odds favor Minnesota winning. Hence, the large Chalk.
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Miami @ Washington
Miami -3
Total 199.5 to 199
Miami 32-37 Overall and 8-25 Away
Washington 22-46 Overall and 16-20 At Home
Christian Laettner Day-to-day for Washington.
MIA is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
MIA is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 overall.
Under is 6-1 in MIA's last seven overall.
WAS is 3-0 ATS in their last three overall.
Over is 6-1 in WAS's last seven overall.
Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
Home/Away:
Miami [-6.0 margin] 86.5 points on 41.4 FG%
Washington [-1.8 margin] 93.7 points on 42.8 FG%
Last 5:
Miami [+10.2 margin] 93.4 points on 44.9 FG%
Washington [-2.2 margin] 108.8 points on 49.0 FG%
Miami leads Season Series 3-0 SU:
Miami 92-84 At Washington...went Over
Miami 79-72 At Miami........went Under
Miami 105-101 At Miami......went Over
Day's Of Rest:
Miami (0) 7-12 Su, 12-6-1 ATS and 12-7 Under (174.9 Average Total)
Washington (1) 11-19 SU, 15-15 ATS and 15-14 Under (190.0 Average Total)
Miami on 7-1 SU run and are 7-3 Su their last 10.
Washington has won back-to-back after losing 7 Su in a row.
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Detroit @ Cleveland
Detroit -4
Detroit 45-25 Overall and 21-15 Away
Cleveland 31-37 Overall and 20-14 At Home
DET is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
Under is 11-3 in DET's last 14 overall.
DET ranks 1st in def avg. 84.7 pts/gm.
CLE is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 overall.
CLE ranks 2nd in rbs avg. 93.4 pts/gm.
Cavs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Home/Away:
Detroit [+3.6 margin] 89.0 points on 42.5 FG%
Cleveland [+1.8 margin] 96.4 points on 43.8 FG%
Last 5:
Detroit [+21.4 margin] 90.4 points on 49.7 FG%
Cleveland [+7.6 margin] 104.0 points on 48.5 FG%
Cleveland leads Season Series 2-1:
Cleveland 85-82 At Cleveland...went Under
Cleveland 95-86 At Cleveland...went Over
Detroit 92-88 At Detroit.......went Under
Season Series Average Total: 176
Day's Of Rest:
Detroit (1) 22-10 SU, 18-12-2 ATS and 18-13 Under (175.2 Average Total)
Cleveland (1) 19-18 Su, 22-14-1 ATS and 24-13 Over (187.1 Average Total)
Detroit is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS their last 10.
Cleveland is on a 7-1 streak and are 11-3 SU their last 14.
Hard to bet against Detroit here as well they are playing.
Still, Clevealand leads the season series 2-1 and Piston's haven't
beaten the Calvaliers by more than +4.
Combined Teams Offenses for the last 5: 194.4 which is +17.4 above
the Posted 177 total.
Detroit 21-14 Under Away
Cleveland 24-10 Over At Home
Lean towards Detroit and Over.
Passing on Side and total.
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Toronto @ New Orleans
New Orleans -5.5
Total 175.5/175/174.5
Toronto 29-39 Overall and 12-21 Away
New Orleans 36-33 Overall and 23-13 At Home
Alvin Williams Doubtful for Toronto
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in TOR's last five overall.
Raptors rank 29th in off avg. 84.8 pts/gm.
NO is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 overall.
NO is 3-1 ATS in their last four at home.
NO is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Home/Away:
Toronto [-5.4 margin] 82.5 points on 40.9 FG%
New Orleans [+3.9 margin] 93.3 points on 42.8 FG%
Last 5:
Toronto [-1.6 margin] 90.6 points on 44.9 FG%
New Orleans [+1.4 margin] 91.0 points on 42.8 FG%
Toronto Leads Season Series 2-1:
Toronto 84-76 At Toronto........went Under
Toronto 78-74 At New Orleans....went Under
New Orleans 86-74 At Toronto....went Under
Day's Of Rest:
Toronto (1) 17-23 SU, 18-20-2 ATS and 24-12 Under (173.9 Average Total)
New Orleans (1) 15-17 SU, 11-20-1 ATS and 20-12 Under (180.2 Average Total)
Toronto 4-6 SU their last 10.
New Orleans 4-6 SU their last 10.
Neither team playing that convincingly, passing on Side.
Trends favor the Under.
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Houston @ Sacramento
Sacramento -8.5
Total 192.5 to 192
Houston 39-28 Overall and 14-17 Away
Sacramento 50-19 Overall and 30-5 At Home
HOU is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 overall.
HOU is 1-3 ATS in their last four on the road.
HOU ranks 26th in off avg. 88.9 pts/gm.
SAC ranks 2nd in offense with 103.9 pts/gm.
Under is 7-2 in SAC's last nine overall.
Kings rank 23rd in rbs avg. 103.9 pts/gm
Home/Away:
Houston [-0.5 margin] 86.9 points on 42.3 FG%
Sacramento [+11.5 margin] 106.9 points on 47.6 FG%
Last 5:
Houston [+3.2 margin] 91.2 points on 43.2 FG%
Sacramento [-1.8 margin] 92.2 points on 46.2 FG%
Sacramento leads Season Series 2-0:
Sacramento 99-94 At Houston....went Over
Sacramento 103-74 At Sacramento...went Under
Day's Of Rest:
Houston 20-16 SU, 15-21 ATS adn 21-14 Under (172.6 Average Total)
Sacramento 32-9 SU, 20-20-1 ATS and 21-19 Under (200.8 Average Total)
Houston has lost back-to-back after winning 5 SU in a row.
Sacramento 6-4 Su their last 10.
Would lean towards Sacramento and passing on the Total.
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Orlando @ Seattle
Seattle -13 to -12.5
Total 194.5 to 194
Orlando 19-52 Overall and 9-28 Away
Seattle 31-38 Overall and 16-18 At Home
Tracy McGrady Out for Orlando
ORL is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 overall.
ORL 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road.
Magic ranks 29th in def avg. 101.3 pts/gm.
SEA is 4-0 ATS in their last four overall.
Sonics rank 6th in off avg. 96.7 pts/gm.
Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Home/Away:
Orlando [-8.4 margin] 94.8 points on 43.2 FG%
Seattle [+0.5 margin] 98.0 points on 44.4 FG%
Last 5:
Orlando [-10.4 margin] 95.4 points on 40.9 FG%
Seattle [+5.6 margin] 99.0 points on 47.3 FG%
Seattle won first meeting:
Seattle 115-101 At Orlando....went Over
Day's Of Rest:
Orlando (0) 5-14 SU, 7-11-1 ATS and 10-8 Over (192.5 Average Total)
Seattle (1) 15-19 SU, 16-18 ATS and 21-12 Under (188.9 Average Total)
Orlando has lost 4 SU in a row and are 2-8 SU their last 10.
Seattle has won 4 SU in a row after being on a 1-9 SU run.
Without McGrady, -13 doesn't seem that unreasonable. Still going to
pass on side.
Taking the Under 194
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Milwaukee @ Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles -10.5 to -10
Total 210 to 209.5
Milwaukee 34-34 Overall and 10-23 Away
Los Angeles 46-23 Overall and 26-5 At Home
MIL is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 overall.
MIL is 0-4 ATS in their last four on the road.
MIL ranks 4th in off avg. 98 pts/gm.
LAL is 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine overall.
LAL is 0-4-1 ATS in their last five at home.
LAL is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Home/Away:
Milwaukee [-2.2 margin] 94.4 points on 43.2 FG%
Los Angeles [+10.2 margin] 99.5 points on 46.1 FG%
Last 5:
Milwaukee [-1.6 margin] 103.0 points on 45.7 FG%
Los Angeles [+1.8 margin] 99.8 points on 46.6 FG%
Los Angeles has won both meetings:
Los Angeles 113-107 At Milwaukee....went Over
Los Angeles 98-94 At Milwukee......went Under
Day's Of Rest:
Milwaukee (0) 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS and 8-8 Over/Under (190.5 Average Total)
Los Angeles (1) 26-11 SU, 15-20-2 ATS and 19-15 Under (194.1 Average Total)
Milwaukee on 1-7 SU run and are 3-7 SU their last 10.
Los Angeles has won 4 SU in a row and are 8-2 Su their last 10.
Milwaukee has only lost once by -10 or more the last 10.
Los Angeles has only won once by +10 their last 10.
Milwaukee on 2-9 ATS run.
Los Angeles on 17-1 ATS run.
Los Angeles 4-8 ATS when laying -10 or more.
Would stay away from laying the points. Neither team is doing well vs. the spread.
Pass on the Total.
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good luck everyone,
baz
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