[BigMo]

Not sure how much folks know about how the iowa caucuses work, but the short story is voters second choice is very important. If candidates don't get to 15% in one of the 1900 caucuses, they cannot submit their votes for that caucus. They are then left to vote for one of the other candidates.

By far the most popular 2nd choice right now is Kerry so he has a lot of hidden strength. I imagine Dean's disaffected message has appeal to new voters, and those for the most part aren't counted in the polls, so he has some hidden stregth as well.

As for the polls in NH, the primary is 8 days away and that is an eternity, just look at the changes in Iowa over the last week.

Riding the mo coming out of Iowa, and the effectiveness of his negative attacks on clark, Kerry will rise in the NH polls fast and hard, while Dean will continue his downslope. That is why I think there is a real possibility Kerry can win NH.

Once that is over there are a spate of smaller primaries, and some home based ones including Mizzu for gephardt, and SC for Edwards, but included are some northern primaries which will play well for Kerry and Dean leading up to the march 2nd freeforall. By mid feb. a clear path for Kerry will be emerging.