[BigMo]

Dean is a sell right now, imo. Overpriced. He is at 52 on the wsex interactives, down from 58 yesterday.

He will place 4th in Iowa, which will be a loss for him considering he's lived there for months trying to frontload the momentum. But not too many people realize the primary rules have changed, a Jimmy Carter or bill clinton type is a much longer shot today than they were then. The primaries have been compressed so an outsider has little chance of gaining name recognition and momentum resulting in donations and organization, before the next wave of primaries is upon him.

Yes Dean has higher name rec and more money, but he has bigger hurdles because of his backround and experience.

Besides his recent declines in Iowa, one month ago he comanded almost 50% of the vote in NH, he has half that now.

He has also shown substantial slippage in national polls over the last month.

There is a chance he may actually not even place first in NH, an outside one, but if he doesn't finish first it will be once again a big loss, the flavor of the month will be left atop mount washington. Most important is he will score in the 20's along with clark and kerry, and he will be on the down slope while they will be rising. so it will be a 3 man race at that point and dean interactive prices should drop to the low 40's even the 30's within the month.

Wesley clark is the new flavor, but he has trouble with staying power, once the treasure chest of negative backround on him is fed to the public, the republican turned democrat who got his butt fired in the Balkans will lose some ground.

Kerry will win Iowa, his numbers are rising in NH, he has the best organization, and the most money, as well as rising numbers nationwide. His uptrend is not a flash surge, he is not a brash guy nor is his campaign one of these "alternative" types like Clark or Dean.

His record also happens to be the most tested of the democrats, and he has the most opinion makers on his side.

My opinion a year and a half ago on this board was he would be the nominee and it hasn't changed. Currently buy priced at 22 at wsex, he should be able to command a sell price in the low 30's within the month.