Thread: Pick The Dow
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Old 01-12-2004, 11:10 AM
bazanster2 bazanster2 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 8,175
Default RE:Pick The Dow

Good morning Bostongambler,

Up on Monday

Hoping to start this busy week off on the right note.
No economic reports today, traders are expecting better and average reports Tuesday.

Since March the Dow has been very consistent in retreating below it's 50 day
moving average or within 50 points of it on each leg's top.
From this, the next downward leg should correction to the 10,125-10,200 levels
with 10,275 being the top range.

Currently, the Dow MACD fast/slow lines are just about to reverse.
The MACD Histogram has been trending down and has gone down below -0-
on each leg.
Also, the stochastic has been in an "Overbought" condition for about a month.
Looking for samll bounce after dropping -133 on Friday. It could continuing to correct.
Just from the economic reports, am bullish on Tuesday and Friday. May some mixed reports
on Wednesday and Thursday. Consumer prices may be higher than expected.
The 4th Quarter results should provide a good run. The next Quarter may be hard pressed to
be as convincing. Especially the next GNP number. (I'm already shorting that day [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img])
After all, these Market have had outstanding run since March and everyday can't be sunny.

A few miscellaneous comments:
While the Dow fell -133 points, Nanotech stocks shined.

Last Friday's action:
NPCT........ Up 9.0% on +1011% increase in daily volume.
ALTI ....... +7.9% on +2359% increase in daily volume.
NGEN....... +13.0% on +2505% increase in daily volume.
NANX....... +18.0% on +3403% increase in daily volume.

(*) Not sure I'd jump in today with these today, although the Nasdaq has out performed
the Dow, it's also more volitlle. Looking for a correction in Tech, these high flyers are
sure to give back some gains. But long term, look out.

Like VECO long term due their being a leader in making equipment use
in nanotechnology. It more diversified into metrology and process equipment systems
for industry leaders in the semiconductor, data storage, telecom/wireless and
scientific/research markets. Long term, nanotechnology should be a big boon.

Red Hat (RHAT) +17.5% since it's listing 12/22/03

LUKOY: good to see it break $100

GLG and RANGY doing well in the Gold sector.

May be some short term weakness in Copper/PD.

that's about it, take care and have a great day.

Go Patriots!!!


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Key events in the week ahead"

*Tuesday the Labor Department releases figures on import and export prices for
December. Typically not a closely watched report, it has lately garnered attention as
the prices of imported consumer goods have begun showing annual rises for the first time
since 1996. Overall import prices, less oil, rose by 0.3 percent in November. Export
prices, less agriculture, rose by 0.2 percent.

* Economists polled by forecast the trade deficit for November,
due out Wednesday, to come in at $42 billion, up from October's $41.8 billion.

* December's producer price index, also slated for Wednesday, is expected to show
a 0.2 percent increase in prices at the wholesale level, compared with a 0.3 percent
decline in November. The core, which excludes food and energy, is expected to climb 0.1
percent versus a 0.1 percent decline in November.

* Wednesday afternoon the Fed releases the beige book, a collection of anecdotal evidence
on the state of the economy put together by the regional Federal Reserve banks.

* Thursday's release of the consumer price index is expected to show that consumer inflation
picked up 0.1 percent in December after declining by 0.1 percent in November. The core CPI
is expected to tack on 0.1 percent against a November decline of 0.2 percent.

* December retail sales, due out Thursday, are expected to show a gain of 0.5 percent, versus
November's gain of 0.9 percent.

* The New York Fed releases the January read on its Empire State Index of manufacturing
activity in its region Thursday. In December it came in at 37.4. Any number over zero represents

* The Philly Fed's more closely-watched index of manufacturing in its region, also due out Thursday,
is expected to come in at 30, down from 32.1 in December. Any number over zero represents expansion.


* November business inventories, due out Friday, are expected to show a gain of 0.2 percent versus
October's 0.4 percent gain.

* The Fed's report on industrial production and capacity utilization, slated for Friday, is expected
to show production picked up by 0.6 percent in December versus a 0.9 percent gain in November.
The utilization rate is expected to rise to 76 percent from November's 75.7 percent.

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