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Old 02-15-2012, 07:41 PM
analyzer analyzer is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by analyzer View Post
The Uconn 1H Fade now looks like this... (ATS)

@Seton Hall 22-35, 41-40
@Rutgers 30-28, 30-39
WV 28-33, 36-24
@ND 24-25, 43-28
Cinci 33-42, 34-28
@Tenn 27-25, 30-35
ND 24-21, 24-29
@GTwn 21-31
S.Hall 30-17, 39-29
@Lsvlle 24-29, 35-51
@cuse 34-43, 33-42

9 of 11 on the fade run.


[/quote]

I initially went into tonight with some reservation on fading Uconn. Their last home game against subpar competition in Seton Hall, the huskies were clearly not shaving as they blew them out in the first half 30-17 and went on to a 23 point victory. I thought this one might play out in similar fashion, as the Huskies, 5-7 in conference play, really need to win 4 of their last 6, to have any shot at an at large birth in the tourny.

But I think there are certain things working in our favor. Calhoun is still gone. They were denied their appeal for next years tourny eligibility, and might be angry at the system, giving some local bookie/booster that little extra edge they might need to get these boys to lay down for another first half. And, hell, despite Depaul losing 4 straight and 9 of 10, they haven't trailed any of their last 4 games at half time. That included St. Johns, At Cinci, Marquette, and @Notre Dame. Even if Uconn isn't shaving, Depaul might hang around for a half. Caution, that's eerily similar to the language I used right before Seton Hall got toasted by the Huskies.

Maybe down size your bet a little, but I think it's still worth a play, after all, Uconn has covered just 2 of their last 11 first halves against the spread. I expect them to be hungry, but maybe they'll wait until the 2nd half to step on the gas. Normally I'd recommend a 2nd half play on the Huskies, but it's just too risky with a bunch of guys that appear to be willing to lay down. Nevertheless, I'll fade em again 1st half. Keep it cheap.

Depaul 1h +7 1/2.

=================

Well, it's finally happened. Vegas threw a dbl digit line on a USC game. UCLA is favored by 14 1/2. The Vegas Insider came out with a recent article suggesting USC was one of the favorite fades in the country, and why not. They have lost 16 of their last 18, and scored less than 54 points in 13 of those 16 losses. That's consistency, or should I say, horribly consistent. 14 1/2 bugs me. Bill Callahan once brought his huskers into the colliseum vs one of those #1 ranked Trojan teams, and ran the ball into the line as often as possible, with what appeared to be the sole goal of covering the spread. I'm not suggesting this sh.tty Trojan team is doing something similar, as they never cover, but they do play slow, and keep the scores down, which makes it a little more difficult to cover dbl digits.

Vegas has it 64 1/2 - 49 1/2 based on Team Totals, and i have a hard time arguing with any of that. IF they're off, it might be UCLA a little short. I could see them winning about 75-49. Fading USC has been so profitable this year, and it's extremely tempting, but my gut is telling me to pass. I'm sorry, no play on this one tonight.

I had some other teams I liked, like Missouri first half, but the lines are overinflated tonight. Arkansas is 0-5 on the road in the SEC, and Tenn is hot, but 12 points? Really? There's no way I can take Arkansas; I prefer Tenn, but I'm not laying 12 either. I guess I'll just watch Depaul 1h and see if I can find some half time action some place tonight.
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