The Standard: 300 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 4-4, Even
Units remaining: 301.25
Three one run losses busted any chance of a profitable day with the late plays coming through for a save.
6/26/09
$500
Chisox +105
Washington +150
Houston +105
Tampa Bay -140
Analysis: The public loves the O's and the Tigers. I can personally see both teams losing today, and hopefully so as these are 2 of the 4 big ones tonight. O's were just swept, and the Nats have ultimately shown life in the 11th hour of their season. At a +150 there is no reason why this team can't win tonight. Their bullpen has done much better against two of the AL's best in the Yanks and Sox. Detwiler has been impressive and I like him over Bergeson tonight as things are clicking for the Nats. Detroit is overvalued tonight as road faves after sweeping a lowly Cubs ballclub. I expect Wandy Rod to come out and outperform Verlander for the win. Speaking of the Cubs, they can not seem to win ballgames of late. Swept by Detroit when 2 of the games were in reach for wins until they folded up shop. This afternoon Contreras will have his way with these Cubs and keep them on the losing path. Finally, the Rays have shown some life as have the Marlins. Should be a close call tonight, but I have found that teams going on the road after facing a weak opponent at home struggle. I expect the fish will struggle tonight after a seemingly easy series with Baltimore.
$300
Texas -1.5(-115)
SD/Tex Under 10.5
Oakland -140
Analysis: Looking to get at least 2 of 3 of these, but 3-0 would be nice. Millwood should be this heavy of a fave tonight at home as he has been dominant in this ballpark. The Pads are just awful and send Walter Silva to the hill. Silva and the Pads allow 5 or more each time he starts. With Texas getting the offense going this should be a 5+ run margin. Millwood should not allow more than a couple tonight unless this one gets sloppy, hence the only chance of an over hitting. Like the under as I see no more than 9 coming in. Besides for a 9 run outburst the other night, the Pads have scored 26 runs in the last 10 games. As far as the Rockies and their 17 wins in 18 games streak is all but over losing 2 straight. They head into another seemingly weak series with Oakland and Brett Anderson who pitched well last time out despite losing. Rocks are on the downswing now and will struggle to hit Anderson. Public favors Colorado heavily, as +130 dogs but there is a reason why this line is what it is. Let us not forget that. When a line sometimes looks to good to be true it is.
$100
Bos/Atl Under 8
Fla/TB Under 8
Analysis: Small plays on these two totals for a few reasons... Beckett has absolutely owned Atlanta in years past. It seems like whether it is 2008 or 2003, his stats dont change much vs. Braves. He has alot of 0's when facing Atlanta as far as ERs go so look for Atlanta to struggle for runs after putting up close to double digits last night. This stays under with a greatly contested game by Jurrjens and an error free effort by Escobar and the Braves fielders. Johnson will face Shields and these guys steadily put up good numbers in Tampa. Shields obviously is the good guy at home and Johnson and the fish see opponents putting up an average of 3 regularly on the road. I see a 4-3 game at best here tonight as long as the bullpens finish strong.  |