Write-ups are a little shorter than usual based off an early card today. All sides are action, totals listed starters.
The Standard: 300 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-2, +1.75 units
Units remaining: 301.25
6/25/09
$200 St.Louis -115
$100 StL/NYM Under 7
Johan Santana has not looked the same of late. Seems like he is fighting the losing battle with many of his teammates out of action. It is showing on the mound. The Mets cruised 11-0 last night so look for them to be dormant today in a revenge game for STL. Especially with Carpenter going. Opponents are averaging 2.5 runs per game when Carpenter starts, and that includes his 3 inning short outing this season. Carp has allowed 10 ERs in 9 starts this season. Johan will do battle today and bring his best but it wont be enough. Look for a 3-2 final. Mets were 22-12 in Santana starts LY. Only 7-11 in games where Santana was dog or was laying less than -170. TY Mets are 8-6 with him as starter, 4-4 as dogs or faves less than -170 and are 1-3 in his last 4 outings.
$200 Kansas City +105
This one likely should go over the total but more importantly KC should be able to get plenty of runs and win this one easy. Bannister faces Moehler. Moehler has a 9+ ERA at home this season and stands at 0-3 there. With some low outputs in the first 2 games look for KC to especially put up a bunch. Bannister has shown good signs lately and has looked sharp in his last 3 games. It is the pen that has failed him. That will not happen today.
$200 Cubs -110
Lilly has a 2.21 ERA over his last 3. Galarraga has struggled mightily since early in the year. Galarraga has only pitched 6 total innings in his last 2 outings. I played to victory in the last Galarraga outing, now I will fade him today. Cubbies will stop the road sweep in Detroit and get some revenge from the first 2 in this series.
$200 NYY/Atlanta UNDER 8.5
Pettitte and Lowe will face off in the rubber-match series game. NY won last night with 4 late inning rallies for runs. Braves gave that one away. These starters should keep runs off the board as long as things dont get sloppy like last night. Lowe has struggled of late, so I would lean Yanks here. Overall Pettitte has dominated road opponents of late and the Yanks would have only gotten a couple last night if the Braves didnt fork over about 5 runs. Neither team has been able to put up tons lately and that will continue tonight in a 4-2 ballgame.
$200 Texas/Arizona OVER 9.5
Texas comes off the win last night looking for run scoring. Tonight they may get it as they face Garland who has a 7.82 home ERA. He allowed 20 ERs against Texas last year in just 3 starts. This year opponents at home have put up nearly 10 runs per game in Garlands last 3 at home. Overall at home on the year, opponents have scored 52 runs in his 7 home outings. A weak home starter and a weak bullpen equals a ton of run scoring coming off a 2-1 game the night before.
$200 Cincy +120
How could one pass up Cueto as a dog tonight over Brett Cecil who has not looked that great. Cueto has allowed 5 ERs in his last 4 road outings. The bullpen remains to be seen to see how well they will perform tonight. But even in those games opponents averaged 4 runs per. I would certainly ride against the public here, as they weigh heavy on Cecil who has allowed 11 ERs in his last 2 outings. Cincy should put up 3-4 alone on Cecil and take this one by a run or two.
$300 Washington +110
Smoltz makes his Sox debut tonight in Washington, a place he has succeeded in the past. The thing is, he may be rusty, he may not be able to go too long tonight. There is value on the Nats as home dogs tonight with the public heavy on Boston. If Smoltz goes 3 innings with pain or stiffness(highly possible) the Nats could have an easy night. Oh, and Jordan Zimmermann has not been pitching that bad recently and this could set up a big outing for him. Home dog to take the final game in this series.  |