If he is, the country doesn't seem to be buying it-polls indicate that suspending the debates because of the economy isn't being supported by the public. Perhaps not coincidentally, in the last week, Obama has moved ahead in all national popular vote polls, plus Colorado and Virginia which were previously unclear. In PA and MI, Obama was leading by a point or two and those Kerry states were unclear, now Obama leads in these states by 5-10 points. NM and IA are no longer close and Obama leads by over 10 in some polls. OH has gone from McCain up 4-6 to about even. Even North Carolina, where McCain has lead by at least 3 all along and as much as 20, a new poll today shows Obama up by 2- first poll ever to show Obama ahead in there. In FL McCain's lead has slipped from about 5-8 to about 1-3.
And Obama doesn't need all these states to win. Holding PA and MI
while winning the Bush states NM, IA and CO will do. Then, there is the matter of Obama's likelihood of winning in various states:
Obama 100% chance: DC, HI, MD, RI, VT
90-99% chance: MA, CT, ME, NY, NJ, DE, IL, IA, CA, WA, OR
80-89% chance: CO, MN, NM, WI
70-79% chance: MI, PA, VA
The above states add up to 282 EV, 12 more than needed to win.
60-69% chance: None
50-59% chance: IN, NH
40-49% chance: FL, OH, NV
To paraphrase the words of Tom Cruise in "A Few Good Men," McBush and Fail-in are gonna lose, and they're gonna lose HUGE.
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The biggest choke in the history of sports, your 2004…NEW...YORK...YANKEES!!!  |