Joe-
In regards to the lack of serious gambling discussion, I think you are right about there being less interest. I think most that still gamble have found their edge and are hesistant to share if it pertains. Back in the ol' days, knowledgable posters let their ego's get in the way of their brains and alot of gems were spewed across the forums via chest thumping arguments.
Nowadays, its most children bragging about how much they can bench press, perverts posting porn, and nerds whose lives are defined by forumville. I think it resembles a town with no jobs, college, or opportunities where the flunkies are left behind comparing themselves with one another, while the talent has moved away.
I would wager that a substantial majority don't even gamble on sports. Its tough to get it done offshore, and most of these nerds wouldn't know where to find a local, and probably believe they'll get stiffed cause some dumbfuck on a forum told them that.
As far as the question goes, I disagree with most of your assumptions. I think you need to define the sport to get a real discussion going, but here are a few of my thoughts. Isn't tempo important in regards to scoring totals? Tempo defines scoring oppportunities, and some teams use tempo to dictate the game. I wouldn't automatically assume that because a team has a low average, that it is necessarily and indication of weakness. It might be an indication of stregth.
If this was basketball, I would argue that you are 100% wrong in your method. If both teams score less than average, and give up less than average, then when they face each other, I would make an adjustment DOWNWARD, not upward. The league averages have only had an artificial inflation of their scoring totals up until this point, and when they face each other...the scoring would tend to be less.
What sport are we talking about? I think you're sharp enough to know that a general rule cannot be made across all sports.
Also, enjoy your poker posts. I hung it up about a year ago, got bored of it.
Iron.  |