I think one thing should be noted, that any bookmakers who take large bets on any event, and hence, has a lot at stake, should be taken seriously since they are usually fairly accurate because that's there business.
So i would give more credence to a good bookmakers odds than i would a mass media"poll". Especially since mass media moguls hate the thought of a "non sanctioned candidate" having success. The way Fox has tried to discredit Pauls overwhelming successes in 2 text in votes for their broadcast debates is shameful. I mean really, they spend all this time "hyping" their "you can vote for tonights winner" all through their broadcast, and then they discredit their own results when Ron Paul wins by a huge margin. One really needs to think hard about that because it says a lot.
As far as Ron Pauls odds being offered much shorter than actual probability, I must admit the conclusions offered by some in this thread seem credible.
Possibly, the bookmakers are getting many bets on Ron Paul for the simple reason that most gamblers, who are for the most part, libertarian in spirit, want to place a bet on Paul as a show of support, since it is rare to have a candidate who actually endorses the freedom to gamble amongst other things.
( I'm sure if Gus Hall was still running, Count Zero might throw a few bucks on him).
I would dearly hope, that no one would let the perception of having "no chance" be a deterrent for anyone to vote for the candidate that best represents what they believe. The whole "wasted" vote rhetoric, is more propoganda from the mighty 2 party monarchy, that never wants to lose it's grip on us. ( or i should say, the groups that control the 2 parties).
I will vote for Ron Paul, regardless of his percieved chances, just like i voted for Harry Browne ( R.I.P. Harry). But regardless of what happens, one thing is for sure, Ron Pauls message is being heard, something that Libertarians have never been able to do on a large stage before, and the internet is a big part of that. The Internet is like a fresh new world, mostly unregulated, unsensored, and largely untaxed as a grand new way to find different points of view, research many topics, entertain oneself, purchase and sell products internationally to a wide open market, and of course, earn money, and handle financial transactions freely.
Thats why the UIGEA is such a large issue, because it is much, much, more than just a non-gambling act. It is the federal government trying to gain a foothold of control on this wonderful new "world". They have stifiled the free market, slowed the free markets natural assendance of innovation, and they have done it under the guise of "protecting you" and even shamelessly trying to convince the gullible that this is a big step in the "war on terror". Thats why im so very suprised that more groups that could care less about gambling, have not joined our fight, since it has more to do with keeping the federal government out of our bank accounts, than just gambling.
Just think how wonderful it was to have an innovative company like Neteller, and many like them, only to have the DOJ decimate various companies who were liscenced and operating legally in their various jurisdictions. So maybe it is just an appeasement to the zealots theocratic base, but i think it is much deeper and much more sinister. So yes, i will be voting for Ron Paul and i believe, although he more than likely will not be nominated, has awoken a large, large contingent of Americans who are sick and tired of our 2 party monarchy, and is sick and tired of being told what to do, what to say, what to think, and are fed up with government being part of every facet of their day to day lives. And we can now, thanks to the ease and convenience of the internet, educate ourselves to the reality that government power is not a natural or divine reality, but rather something that has slowly evolved through a process, and that we the people, although with the odds stacked against us, do and can have the power to reclaim our lost liberty in this wonderful, although sometimes cruel and often tainted and poisoned with corruption,system of self-governence called the United States of America.  |