Kentucky Derby:
I’m listing some stuff for the Kentucky. It’s going to be up to you to do the leg work to see where these angles fit. Hey I’m not going to do it all and possibly have it cut into my profits
Hey I know its 27 days till Derby day, but I want to hear others stuff now.
Since 1979 only three favorites have won (counting Barbaro), and since 1989 only one second choice has won (Barbaro was 2nd choice late, but switched to favorite right at Post-Time)! Over those years only a bit over a 3rd have even finished in-the-money (ITM)
Many of those low odds horses that performed poorly no matter how strong their numbers appear to be were bucking angels like….
Freshness & Recency-
Many top trainers believe the key is to bring their horses in lightly raced and rested into the Derby. History shows that horses coming into the Derby with fewer than 3 Derby Prep races have done miserably. Only one winner since 1949!
This year’s list includes???
Horses away from the races more than 28 days have done nothing. Up until last year the last horse to fit that bill and won was in 1955 the last 23 horses that have tried it lost. Now last year was different because the Derby fell late last year all the Big Prep races like the Wood, SA, Illinois, and Florida derby had a lot of horses including Barbaro falling behind in the range of 28 to 35 days. This year they fall exactly at 28 days. This is something to keep in mind for later years.
The quirks in dates caused that angle to falter last year.
Dosage & Breeding:
For decades dosage was an uncanny of a Derby potential. This measurement of stamina and ability to get the tough mile and a quarter distance has fallen off in accuracy in recent years. Not to go into to much of an in depth analysis I’ll just list what information I have here.
It’s considered difficult for a horse with a dosage index of 4 or higher to win big races at the classic distances. Only four have won with a four plus since 1940. Strike the Gold, Real Quiet, Charismatic, and Giacomo. The deal is that all four of those have won in the last 16 years.
Last year Lawyer Ron (4.14) and Sinister Minister (4.00) had the plus dosage.
The most productive horses have been in the DI 2.00-2.99 range.
Prep races:
For overall historical impact on the Derby the key prep races in somewhat order of importance are:
Wood Memorial
Florida Derby
Blue Grass Stakes
Arkansas Derby
Santa Anita Derby
San Vincent Stakes
San Felipe Stakes
Lexington Stakes
Fountain of Youth Stakes
Of course there can be debate about this order of importance of these, and plus each year’s races come up differently with field of strength – weather- pace- ect. However you should note who not only won, but ran well in the above races.
I would seriously downgrade a horse that hasn’t won or placed in a Grade 1 or grade 2 Stakes.
Last year Bluegrass Cat, Private Vow, and Flashy Bull had their Grade 2 wins and places as 2-year olds, but didn’t repeat that success as 3-year olds. Cause to Believe and Deputy Glitters were the only two without Grade 1 or 2 win or places.
Grade 1 winners were: Brother Derek, Barbaro, Bob and John, and Sinister Minister.
Grade 2 winners were: Lawyer Ron, Sweetnorthernsaint, Private Vow, A.P. Warrior, Sharp Humor, Keyed Entry, and Showing Up.
It’s up to you to fill in the blanks for this year crew.
Beyer Numbers:
Strong Derby contenders and winners in the last 15 years have had at least one Beyer number of 105 or higher in prep races leading up to the Derby.
Trainers loved to get their horses to the Derby seasoned but still relatively fresh. The “bounce” off an all-out effort in the pre-derby prep is always a danger-as is running stale after an extended pre Derby campaign, or not having enough conditioning. It’s a touchy thing and requires ultimate care, planning and finesse. But it’s also safe to say that most of these trainers are the best in the world.
Post-Positions:
Post position #1 surprisingly has had the most winners in history of the Derby. Post positions 15 and 16 of the auxiliary gate have done okay, while position #17 has failed to produce a winner (LY was Lawyer Ron), and Position 18 has only one (Last year it was Brother Derek). Also 19 and 20 have never produced a winner.
Pace:
Early pace types have not won many Derbies. The ratio is much different than in general racing. Off the pace runners have a distinct advantage over-all. So your best advantage is to look for those types of horses.
I’m not a big workout watching fan, but last year leading up to the Derby Barbaro impressed every on-looker. It may be wise to tune into HRTV and see if they can give good coverage of the works.
What is the perfect profile for a potential Derby winner?
The horse should be bred for the distance. It should be lightly raced, but have at least three decent 3 yr. old prep races. It should be peeking at the right time and have won or run very tough with a minimum of a 105 Beyer rating (or close to improving) in it’s main Derby prep race-which should have been a Grade 1 of Grade 2 less than 28 days (or close) before Derby Day.
Betting:
I’d suggest betting the best overlays among your top contenders. Remember how difficult it’s been for favorites in recent DECADES to win this race. Also remember the life-changing exotics that have happened in this race over the years. The Super paid over $800,000 two years ago. Think about that if you’re considering a relatively short priced favorite!
Keep the information streaming in.
Good Luck to All
Doc