If Matt Serra is going to knock off reigning UFC Welterweight champ George St. Pierre at UFC 69 Showdown, he’s going to have to get down and dirty.
Serra’s submission and mat wrestling skills are his only chance, according to oddsmakers who set the TUF 4 winner as a +500 underdog for tonight’s fight.
The man known as “The Terror” (15-4-0) is one of the best ground fighters in the mixed martial arts world, but his struggles against upright strikers like St. Pierre are prompting books to open with the champ (13-1-0) set as a -600 favorite for his first title defense.
Ultimate Fighting bettors are siding with St. Pierre, forcing bookies to adjust the favorite's price to -800 on Saturday morning. The 25-year-old from Montreal, Quebec shocked MMA analysts in November when he knocked out then-Welterweight champion Matt Hughes for his fifth straight win. His length and explosiveness could exploit Serra’s vulnerability to stand-up fighters, which was evident in losses to B.J. Penn, Din Thomas and Shonie Carter, but Serra is prepared to prove the books wrong.
"Everybody's said the same thing about me my whole career," Serra told the Canadian Press. "If I don't get it down (to the ground), I'm getting knocked out … When was the last time I got knocked out or even hurt really, standing? The only time I got stopped was Shonie Carter and that was in 2001 and that's out of my entire career. You see me take beatings and keep on going.”
To be effective in tonight’s main event, Serra has to get the 5-foot-10 St. Pierre on his back quickly and keep him there. Despite giving up four inches and likely some weight coming into tonight’s event (both men weighed in at 169.5 pounds but St. Pierre is known to bulk up in water weight), Serra, who is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, must use his ground attack to expose perhaps the only flaw in St. Pierre’s game.
As well, Serra might have the inside track on any chinks in the champion's armor since both fighters train with Brazilian jiu-jitsu trainer Renzo Gracie in New York City. St. Pierre, who is seven years younger than Serra, didn't train with Gracie for this fight because of his opponents’ seniority and history with the Gracie program.
“These guys know each other well,” says Joey Odessa, a boxing and MMA linesmaker. “A leopard doesn't change his spots. Each knows what they have to do to win. St Pierre is the naturally bigger of the two with the better standup. Serra needs to get this bout on the ground and work his subs.”
Both fighters haven’t fought since November because St. Pierre suffered a knee injury which postponed their original meeting scheduled for Feb. 3. He damaged both his posterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments but assured bettors he is 100 percent heading into this weekend.
“I'm not rusty at all,” St. Pierre told the Miami Herald. “I've been training very hard. I'm ready to go.”
Oddsmakers also have confidence in St. Pierre’s durability after he fought through injuries in the past, including a groin strain which forced him to pull out of his original rematch with Hughes.
“It's a non factor,” says Odessa. “St Pierre is in a position as champion and more importantly being the main UFC attraction to Canadian viewers. He doesn’t have to fight injured.”
Mixed martial arts fans can watch the action live on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.  |